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社会保险降费的就业效应——基于服务业的政策模拟
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TitleThe Effect of Social Security Fee-Reduction on the Employment of Service Sectors  
作者尹恒  
AuthorYin Heng  
作者单位中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院 
OrganizationRenmin University of China 
作者Emailyheng@ruc.edu.cn 
中文关键词社会保险费 减税降费 服务业就业 企业异质性 结构估计 
Key WordsSocial Security Fee-reduction; Service Sectors Employment; Firm Heterogeneity; Production Function; Demand Elasticity 
内容提要本文提出一个同时估计需求函数和生产函数、可以模拟社会保险降费效应的结构模型,以评估降费对服务业就业的影响。根据全国税收调查中10个服务业行业数据的政策模拟,得到了一些有意义的结果:第一,服务业社会保险降费的就业效应相当可观,降费4个百分点,劳动需求平均增长约8个百分点。第二,尽管服务业行业差异巨大、需求价格弹性悬殊,在所有10个行业中成本传导(Pass through)模式却是一致的,即面对劳动成本的下降,企业更多地选择扩张业务量、增加劳动雇佣而不是削减服务价格。降费4个百分点,价格水平只下降0.73个百分点。第三,降费明显改善服务业资源配置效率、提升服务业全要素生产率。降费后生产率高的企业劳动需求增加更多,市场份额扩大。第四,小规模服务业企业对劳动成本的变化更加敏感。由于服务业中小规模企业为数众多,降费对社会就业的促进作用不可小觑。最后,社会保险收入对费率的变化相当敏感,减费的同时需要配合以替代的社会保险收入来源。本文的研究表明,社会保险征费体制改革与实质性降费政策相配合,可以在改善长期征管效率的同时稳定其对就业的短期冲击。 
AbstractThis paper puts forward a structural model in which parameters of demand function and production function can be estimated at the same time, and uses it to evaluate the effect of social security fee-reduction to employment, price, and social security revenue. Using 10 Chinese service sectors’ data from National Tax Survey Database during 2007-2011, we have a lot of interesting findings relates to social security fee-reduction. Firstly, there is remarkable employment effect, 4 percentage points’ social security fee-reduction can increase firm’s labor demand about 8 percentage points. Secondly, even though there are huge differences in the distribution of markups among service sectors, all the 10 sectors show the same pass through pattern: in face of the decrease of labor cost, firms choose employ more labor than rise the service price. 4 points’ fee-reduction on brings about 0.73 points’ price-reduction. Thirdly, social security fee-reduction can significantly improve resource allocation in Chinese service sectors. Higher productivity firms grow faster than others and enjoy more market share after fee-reduction. Fourthly, small scale service firms are more sensitive to the change of labor cost. The role of social security fee-reduction on stimulate overall employment is rather important due to huge number of small scale service firms, especially facing the uncertainty of recent trade friction. Meanwhile, it’s also important to find substitutional social security fund sources due to the remarkable shrink after social security fee-reduction.  
文章编号WP1456 
登载时间2020-01-03 
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