| Abstract | In China, the male-to-female sex ratio at birth increases continuously from 108.47 in 1982 to the peak value of 121.18 in 2004. Since 2008, it dramatically and steadily declined. Extant research on the economic and social causes behind the imbalance of sex ratio at birth in China has focused on the level of economic growth, the speed of urbanization and the development of social security and social care systems. However, existing research mostly rely on theoretical analysis and provides no empirical evidence to support their claims. Using data from the Fifth and Sixth Population Censuses in 2000 and 2010 as well as National 1% Population Survey in 2005 and 2015, this paper is one of the first to combine population and macroeconomic data for 286 cities during 2000 and 2015 to empirically analyze whether economic growth and housing prices can explain the pattern in sex ratio at birth as observed in the data.
The results obtained from this study can be summarized as follows: First, high level of housing prices help to reduce sex ratio at birth, but economic growth has no significant effect after using instrumental variable estimation. Second, in cities where Confucianism influence is relatively weak, increases in housing prices lead to reductions in sex ratio at birth, while in cities where Confucianism influence is strong, housing prices and economic growth have no effect. Third, during the early period of Housing Reform for Cities and Townships in 2000, high housing prices help to reduce sex ratio at birth in places where birth control and interventions are more prevalent, while housing prices have no impact in other areas. Fourth, the social status of women, the speed of urbanization, the development of social security and social care systems, and the multiplicity of birth control policies across different regions cannot explain the decline in sex ratio at birth during the past 10 years.
The policy implications of this study are two folds. First, traditional marriage customs and practices for young men and women require that the male party or his parents to assume the responsibility of house purchase. High housing prices have inevitably increased the cost of raising boys. As a result, the social perception of having male or female descendants has changed dramatically from “boy preference” to “boy or girl is the same”, subsequently leading to sustained decline in sex ratio at birth. The new development in marriage and fertility culture during the past decade calls for the government to maintain steady development of the housing market and avoid large swings in housing prices, so that the imbalance of sex ratio at birth can be ameliorated continuously. Second, because “boy preference” remains ingrained among families in places where Confucianism ideology and influences are strong, no economic or social factors, including housing prices, economic growth, urbanization and social security system can help reduce sex ratio at birth. Consequently, the government should increase its effort to promote new fertility culture in the above areas, such as showing the merit of girls to all families, so that “boy or girl is the same” and “girls are equally good descendants” can become dominant ideology. In addition, the government should encourage men and women to assume equal responsibility in housing purchases, leading to a more fair and friendly cultural environment for marriage and fertility. With implementation of good policies, China will eventually attain the goal of natural balance in sex ratio at birth.
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