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空间经济波动、理性预期与区域经济政策——基于动态空间均衡的方法
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TitleSpatial economic fluctuations, rational expectations and regional economic policies  
作者吴浩波 安虎森 孟叶  
AuthorWu Haobo, An Husen, and Meng Ye  
作者单位浙江理工大学经济管理学院;南开大学经济研究所;浙江大学经济学院 
OrganizationThe School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Sci-tech University;Nankai University;School of Economics, Zhejiang University 
作者Emailwuhaobo58@126.com; husen@nankai.edu.cn;mengye_bvf@163.com 
中文关键词理性预期 迁移成本 动态空间均衡 样本谱密度 
Key WordsRational Expectations; Migration Cost; Dynamic Spatial General Equilibrium; Sample Spectral Density Estimation 
内容提要区域经济政策吸引生产要素转移,促使区际经济发展差距缩小的长期作用机制是本文的核心问题。利用动态空间均衡方法,本文发现以全国征收所得税和补贴目标地区熟练工人或企业为代表的区域经济政策不仅能够有效地缩小区际经济发展差距,而且多重均衡的存在为理性预期和迁移成本影响空间经济的长期均衡提供了重要作用机制。协整检验表明了1952年以来我国城镇单位职工实际工资率、城镇单位职工人数和实际地区生产总值的区际相对差距之间存在着长期均衡关系。本文还发现这3个时间序列包含多个长周期成分,且包含了36年的共同周期,而长周期和共同周期的存在一定程度上正是理性预期促使长期均衡路径由中心结构向焦点结构转变的反映。 
AbstractThe long-run mechanism of regional economic policies which could attract input factors, then reduce the gap of interregional economic development is the core issue of this paper. Using the dynamic spatial general equilibrium approach, this paper found that regional economic policies levying the national income tax and subsidizing skilled workers or enterprises in targeted areas can not only narrow interregional economic development gap, but the existence of multiple equilibria provides an important mechanism for rational expectations and migration costs affecting the long-run equilibrium of the spatial economy. Co-integration tests show that the series such as the relative interregional gap of real wage rate of employed persons in urban units, the number of employed persons in urban units and the real GDP actually have a long-run equilibrium relationship in China since 1952. It is also found that these stationary time series only contain a few long-run periods, and the common periodic component of 36 year, which are just the reflections of rational expectations making the long-run equilibrium path transform from the central-point structure to the focal-point structure. 
文章编号WP1438 
登载时间2019-11-20 
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