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估值偏误、财富“幻觉”与居民消费——来自中国城镇家庭的经验证据
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TitleSelf-Estimation Bias, Wealth Illusion, and Consumption——Empirical Evidence from Chinese Urban Households  
作者高楠 梁平汉  
AuthorGao Nan and Liang Pinghan  
作者单位中南财经政法大学文澜学院;中山大学政治与公共事务管理学院 
OrganizationWenlan School of Business, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law;School of Government, Sun Yat-sen University 
作者Emailn.aarongao@gmail.com;liangph5@mail.sysu.edu.cn 
中文关键词估值偏误 禀赋效应 财富幻觉 居民消费 
Key WordsSelf-Estimation Bias; Endowment Effect; Wealth Illusion; Household Consumption 
内容提要住房资产在我国城镇居民财富中占有很高比例,其价值的变化对于居民消费有着重要的影响。基于行为经济学中关于“禀赋效应”的理论,利用中国家庭金融调查2011、2013年数据,本文发现中国城镇居民在估计自有房产价值时会产生系统性的估值偏误,平均而言,居民高估其房产实际价值的12%。普遍的估值偏误导致了居民对自有财产产生了“财富幻觉”,进而增加了居民的消费水平:估值偏误程度每增加10%,家庭消费水平增加1%左右。本文采取滞后项回归、固定效应模型和两阶段最小二乘法处理不可观测的特征,并使用hedonic model等多种方法构造房产实际价值进行稳健性检验,基本结果仍然成立。进一步研究发现,家庭流动性约束的缓解是“财富幻觉”起作用的重要原因,估值偏误降低了家庭储蓄率并引致了炫耀性消费行为。本文最后基于实证研究结果指出,建立和完善社会主义市场经济体系,提高信息传递效率、降低信息成本,可以降低居民的估值偏误,矫正非理性行为的影响,改善消费质量,进而提高经济效率。 
AbstractHousing assets take a large share in Chinese urban household wealth, and the change of real estate values has important impacts on household consumption. Based on the theory of endowment effects from Behavioral Economics, by using two waves of the CHFS 2011 and 2013 data, this paper finds out that Chinese urban residents will systemically mis-estimate the value of their own real estate. On average, residents overestimate the value of real estate by 12%. This leads to wealth illusion among households, consequently increases the household consumption: 10% increase in the extent of mis-estimation is associated with 1% increase in household consumption. This paper also takes a variety of robust checks, e.g., employing a fixed effect model, including the lagged terms in the regression, applying 2SLS method, and constructing the real value of real estate by various methods. It turns out that the basic findings maintain. Furthermore, it is shown that the release of household liquidity constraint is a key reason underlying the function of wealth illusion, self-estimation bias lowers saving rate, and increases the conspicuous consumption. This paper concludes that increasing marketization level, raising information transmission efficiency, and lowering information cost can contribute to reducing the self-estimation bias, hence correct the impact of irrational behavior and improve the welfare. 
文章编号WP1410 
登载时间2019-08-23 
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