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非位似偏好、非线性本地市场效应与中国服务贸易出口
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TitleNon-homothetic Preferences, Nonlinear Home Market Effects and China’s Services Export  
作者李敬子 陈强远 钱学锋  
AuthorLi Jingzi,Chen Qiangyuan and Qian Xuefeng  
作者单位中南财经政法大学工商管理学院;上海大学经济学院 
OrganizationZhongnan University of Economics and Law;Shanghai University 
作者Emailjingzi20082008@163.com;chqiangy@126.comxfqian@126.com 
中文关键词非位似偏好 非线性本地市场效应 需求结构 
Key WordsNon-homothetic Preferences; Nonlinear Home Market Effects; Demand Structure 
内容提要本文在经典本地市场效应模型的基础上,放松位似偏好假设,将CD-CES效用函数与Stone-Geary偏好结合,构建基于非位似偏好下的服务贸易模型,并把相对总需求分解为相对需求规模与相对需求结构,从理论上推导出相对需求规模与需求结构对服务业出口本地市场效应的作用条件。同时,基于1995~2011年中国与38个国家或地区的服务业双边贸易数据,采用面板门槛Threshold模型讨论服务业出口的阈值效应,首次从实证上验证了服务业出口的非线性本地市场效应。研究发现,非位似偏好下,中国整体服务业表现出显著的需求规模作用的本地市场效应和需求结构作用的逆向本地市场效应,并且后者呈现出显著的非线性特征,即相对需求结构对相对出口的作用会随着相对市场规模的变化而变化,当相对市场规模越大时,相对需求结构的逆向效应越强。分类型与分部门服务业中,生产性服务业和消费性服务业的需求结构均随市场规模变化表现出阶段性特征,生产性服务业与整体服务业的两种效应一致,不同生产性细分行业的两种效应较为相似但强度不同;而消费性服务业仅在市场规模较小时表现出正向需求结构作用的本地市场效应,不同消费性细分行业两种效应差异显著。据此,扩大内需、结合供给侧改革倒逼服务业创新、构建外贸增长和收入公平分配并行的公共激励政策体系等对中国迈向服务业大国乃至强国具有重要的政策意义。 
AbstractBased on the classic home market effects model, this paper relaxed the assumption of homothetic preferences, combined CD-CES utility function with Stone-Geary preferences, and built service trade model under the non-homothetic preferences; then, it decomposed the relative total demand into relative demand scale and demand structure, and deduced the conditions of relative demand scale and demand structure on home market effects in theory. Furthermore, it also used the bilateral trade data between China and 38 countries or regions from 1995 to 2011, adopted panel threshold model to discuss threshold effect of service exports to test the nonlinear home market effects empirically for the first time. In this paper, it was found that: under the non-homothetic preferences, China’s overall services showed significant home market effects resulting from demand scale and adverse home market effects resulting from demand structure, and the latter showed significant nonlinear characteristics, namely the effect of relative demand structure on the relative service export would change with the variation of the relative market size, when the market size was larger, the reverse effect of relative demand structure was stronger. In sectors, the demand structures of the producer services and consumer services were changing with the market size to show the phased characteristics. The two kinds of effects of producer services and the overall services were consistent, and the two kinds of effects in different producer segment services showed similar direction but different intensity; For consumer services, when the market scale was smaller, they only had the positive home market effect resulting from demand structure, but different consumer segment services had significant different effects. On this basis, it would have important policy implications for China towards a great service country and even big power by expanding domestic demand, combined with the supply side reform to force services innovation, constructing the foreign trade growth and income equitable distribution of parallel public incentive policy systems. 
文章编号WP1391 
登载时间2019-07-09 
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