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关联关系、融资约束缓解与投资动态调整—来自担保贷款融资与风险权衡的结构性研究
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TitleRelationship,Relief on Financial Constraints and Investment Adjustments  
作者张小茜 刘晓蕾  
AuthorZHANG Xiaoqian and LIU Xiaolei  
作者单位浙江大学经济学院;北京大学光华管理学院 
OrganizationCenter for Research of Private Economy, School of Economics, Zhejiang University, Guanghua School of Management, Beijing University 
作者Emaildevelop21cn@zju.edu.cn; 
中文关键词融资约束 配对样本 担保贷款 关系 
Key WordsFinancial constraints; Matching sampling; Guaranteed loan; Relationship 
内容提要本文研究被担保企业的融资-风险权衡,配对样本Placebo检验及DiD结果均揭示担保贷款是“锦上添花”后的“紧箍咒”。首先考察什么类型的公司进行担保,发现担保贷款公司在利润率、破产风险上显著好于非担保贷款公司,担保贷款更多地表现出“锦上添花”而非“雪中送炭”。关联关系比贷款金额对担保贷款可得性影响更大,以关联关系作为工具变量考察企业投融资互动性发现这种关联关系直接约束后续各年度的投资。担保贷款确实能够缓解民营企业融资约束,而且这种缓解作用无论从数值还是显著性上都强于其他类型贷款;但另一方面,担保贷款也放大了企业贷款后的风险,比其他类型的贷款更显著,这个结论揭示了风险管理在担保贷款问题上的重要性;担保贷款企业的融资-风险权衡表现为,融资影响1年后的投资调整、风险影响2年后的投资调整。文章还进一步考察了贷款路径、逐年效应等结构性变化,发现:有适度贷款历史的公司获得担保可能性显著高于其他公司;担保贷款成为企业事后发展的“紧箍咒”,导致企业3年后投资收缩。担保贷款在缓解民营企业融资约束的同时,在破产风险、后续投资上都带来了新的问题。 
AbstractTyranny of Collateral is vital for the financial system of developing countries. Guaranteed loan is a Chinese special style to deal with this problem. Financing vs. risk trade-off is studied from the point of guaranteed firms. Placebo tests and DiD analysis with multiple variables based on loan events indicate that guaranteed loan is “icing on the cake” but then shrifts to the "tight spell". Financial constraints are relieved by trade credit in developed countries (Barrot, 2016), which is rarely studied partly because it is difficult to find the empirical evidence and lack of data (Klapper et al., 2012; Campello and Larrain, 2016). In order to deal with financial constraints, guaranteed loans are popular in China. The first question we want to explore is what kind of firms will get guaranteed loan. Guaranteed firms are better in profitability and bankruptcy than unguaranteed firms, implying that China’s guaranteed loan is the icing on the cake rather than offering fuel in snowy weather. Related relationship has stronger effect on the obtainability of guaranteed loan than the amount of the loan. It also has constraints on the investment of each sequent year, which is explored as an IV. The other questions we want to know further are studied in this paper, what kind of firm uses guaranteed loan, how is its impact on non-SOE, does it relieve the firm’s financial constraint, has the financing through guaranteed loan been injected to the real economy? To those questions, this paper provides evidence that guaranteed loans do relieve financial constraints, which is more significant than other loans, by adding some Chinese special characteristics, the relationship between guarantor and borrowing firm. But the risk of bankruptcy increases at the same time, which reveals the importance of risk management on guaranteed loans. The Financing vs. risk trade-off implies that financing have impacts on investment adjustment 1 year later and risk have impacts two years later. The structural effects are also considered in this paper. Causality and reverse-causality between investment and finance, loan path (Roberts, 2015) and investment adjustment are studied. The empirical test on loan paths implies that the obtainability of guaranteed loan is the highest when the firm has proper loan history. Tracking tests of year-by-year effects reveal “tightening spell”, implying that investment shrink is induced in by the guaranteed loan in 3 years. This paper finds that although guaranteed loans do relieve the financial constraints, they result in new problems in bankruptcy and sequent investment reduction. We take the first step in the dual perspectives of guaranteed loans, exploring the impact of relationship between guarantor and the borrowing company and its impact on the borrower’s sequent investment behavior. Chinese guaranteed loans provide more observable datasets, which will contribute to the studies in both classical theories in corporate finance and emerging area like trade credit or risk contagion. Since bank is the final lender, the relationship could be observable to study, which may improve the empirical studies in the future.  
文章编号WP1375 
登载时间2019-05-30 
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