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养老保险对劳动供给和退休决策的影响——基于中国健康与养老追踪调查数据的实证分析
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TitleThe Impact of Basic Pension Program on Labor Supply and Retirement Decision  
作者刘子兰 郑茜文 周成  
AuthorLiu Zilan,Zheng Qianwen and Zhou Cheng  
作者单位湖南师范大学商学院;英国莱斯特大学 
OrganizationHunan Normal University,University of Leicester 
作者Emaillizilan@hunnu.edu.cn 
中文关键词养老金财富 劳动供给 退休决策 引致退休效应 
Key WordsPension Wealth;Labor Supply;Retirement Decision;Induced retirement effect 
内容提要本文使用三期中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据,采用工具变量等计量方法,分别考察了城镇企业职工养老保险和“新农保”对退休行为和劳动供给决策的影响。研究表明,(1)城镇职工养老保险会激励职工提早退休,养老金财富每增加1%,职工预计停止工作年龄平均提早约0.8个月;(2)“新农保”对农民预计停止工作年龄产生微弱的负向影响,随着年龄的增加,养老保险的引致退休效应将减弱。同时,养老金财富的增加会一定程度上抑制农民无休止劳动的意愿;(3)城镇职工养老保险制度对劳动供给产生的收入效应大于替代效应,它不仅会影响个体全职劳动时间,也会影响兼职的劳动时间;(4)“新农保”的劳动供给效应具有异质性。首先,一方面会激励养老金财富水平较低的人群增加劳动时间,一方面会鼓励养老金财富水平较高的群体减少劳动供给。其次,养老金给付水平的提高仅对自家农业劳动产生微弱的负向激励,对其他活动的劳动供给并未产生显著影响。实证研究结果表明,如果企业职工养老保险费率或基本养老金增长率降低并导致养老金财富减少,则职工的预计停止工作年龄将推迟,这为我国适时推出渐进式延长退休年龄政策提供了经验依据。 
AbstractUsing data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011,2013,2015) and employing instrumental variable method, this paper investigates the interplay between China's basic pension system and labor force in retirement behavior and labor supply perspective. This paper examines the effects of the new rural pension program and the urban employee basic pension insurance on labor supply and retirement decision respectively. The empirical analysis demonstrates that (1)The urban employee basic pension insurance will encourage workers to retire early. Averagely the workers plan to stop working about 0.07 years(about 0.8 months)in advance,with pension wealth increasing by 1 %;(2)The new rural pension program has a weak negative impact on ‘retirement age’. The older the farmers,the weaker the induced retirement effect. At the same time, the increase of pension wealth will restrain the peasants' willingness to work endlessly;(3)The income effect of urban employee pension insurance system on labor supply is greater than the substitution effect, which not only affects the individual full-time labor supply, but also affects the part-time labor supply;(4)Pension wealth of new rural pension program has a heterogeneous influence on the labor supply. Firstly, on the one hand, it will encourage the lower level of the pension wealth to increase the working time, on the one hand will encourage the higher level of pension wealth groups to reduce labor supply. Secondly, the improvement of pension benefits only produces a weak negative incentive to household agricultural work, and has not had a significant impact on the labor supply of other activities. Certain critical policy implications emerge from our study. If government reduces the urban employee basic pension’s contribution rate or the growth rate of basic pension benefit leading to lower pension wealth, workers will tend to postpone the expected stopping working age,which provides the empirical basis for timely introduction of progressive delaying retirement age policy in China. 
文章编号WP1357 
登载时间2019-04-02 
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