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经济增长动力转换就是要弱化投资吗?——基于绿色发展理念的中国经济增长动力转换评价与AK模型分析
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TitleDoes Changing the Dynamics of Economic Growth Imply Weakening Investment?  
作者李敬  
AuthorLi Jing  
作者单位重庆工商大学经济学院 
OrganizationChongqing Technology and Business University,CTBU 
作者Emailljfcm@163.com 
中文关键词绿色发展 动力转换 有效投资 
Key WordsGreen development;Transformation of growth dynamics;Efficient investment 
内容提要本文建立了包含投资、技术进步的两时期内生经济转型增长AK模型,从理论和实证两方面揭示了创新驱动和增长动力转换中投资与技术进步的内在联系,并运用Malmquist指数对中国经济增长动力转换情况进行评价。主要发现是:(1)1978-2016年,中国经济增长以要素驱动为主,基于绿色发展理念的经济增长动力转换指数为0.16,TFP年均增长1.3%,经济增长动力中有6.3%源于环境破坏。(2)2013-2016年,北京、天津和上海成功实现动力转换,但从全国看,创新驱动的整体效果还不显著,动力转换滞后。(3)2013年以前,尤其是2009-2012年,高投资在总体上对经济增长动力转换具有负面作用;而2013-2016年,投资增长的作用在发生反转。(4)有效投资在各个时期都显著促进了经济增长动力转换。本文的主要结论是,目前存在的为强化创新驱动而弱化投资的言行是不可取的。 
AbstractTo achieve the steady and effective transformation of growth dynamics is definitely the priority of the new normal of China’s economy. This study aims to evaluation on the transformation of growth dynamics of China’s economy and analysis on AK model based on green development Philosophy .The main findings are as follows. First, in the period of 1978 to 2016, China's economic growth was mainly driven by input. The transition index of economic growth dynamics was 0.16, and the annual growth rate of total factor productivity was around 1.3%. Generalized innovation-driven contributed 13.5%. 6.3 per cent of economic growth derived from environmental destruction. Second, in 2013 to 2016, as the digestion period of the RMB 4 trillion investment, the strategy of Chinese central government of focusing on growth quality and adhering to green development had acquired an obvious effect. The contribution of economic impetus that sacrificed our ecological environment declined to -4.5%. However, probably due to the lack of efficient investment, the overall effect of innovation-driven strategy has not emerged macroscopically throughout the country. Third, in the period of 2013 to 2016, the contribution of investment growth rate to inter-regional’s transformation differences of economic growth dynamics were 19.9%. Effective investment in each period significantly promotes the transformation of economic growth dynamics. Therefore, it is not advisable to weaken investment in order to achieve innovation-driven. 
文章编号WP1343 
登载时间2019-03-11 
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