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经济“脱实向虚”与最优货币政策——基于资产组合视角的理论分析
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Title“Economic Shifting from Real to Virtual” and Optimal Monetary Policy——A Theoretical Analysis from the View of Portfolio  
作者彭俞超 沈吉 郭豫媚  
AuthorPeng Yuchao,Shen Ji and Guo Yumei  
作者单位中央财经大学;北京大学光华管理学院 
OrganizationCentral University of Finance and Economics; Peking University 
作者Emailyuchao.peng@ruc.edu.cn;jishen@gsm.pku.edu.cngym333@126.com 
中文关键词“脱实向虚”;货币政策;资产组合;宏观审慎 
Key Wordsshifting from real to virtual; monetary policy; portfolio; macro-prudential policy 
内容提要近年来,我国货币供给保持较快增长,其中大量货币流入房地产市场使得房地产市场出现泡沫化趋势,经济表现出“脱实向虚”的特征。为了探究经济“脱实向虚”的内在机理,本文通过构建一个包含货币、生产资本和泡沫资产三种资产的“经济增长—资产组合”模型,探索了泡沫资产对货币流向及货币政策效率的影响。模型分析结果表明,提高货币增长率具有二重效应。第一重是总量效应,即通过降低货币的实际收益率提高家庭的非货币资产持有,进而推高经济的储蓄率,推动经济增长。第二重是结构效应,通过影响资产组合降低生产资本与泡沫资产的比例,加剧“脱实向虚”,抑制经济增长。当泡沫资产的风险较小时,结构效应将占主导,货币增长率的提升只会导致资金不断流向泡沫资产,阻碍经济增长。进一步的政策模拟结果表明,通过宏观审慎政策工具与货币政策相搭配,将能够防范经济“脱实向虚”,最大化社会福利。 
AbstractIn recent years, China's money supply has maintained a rapid growth. A large amount of money has flown into the real estate market leading to a real estate bubble, and making the economy to shift from real to virtual. In order to explore the inherent mechanism of the economic shifting from real to virtual, we build an “economic growth – portfolio” model including three types of assets including money, production capital and bubble assets. From the model, we explore the impact of bubble assets on the direction of monetary flows and the efficiency of monetary policy. The results of the model analysis show that the increase in money growth rate has a double effect. The first is the total effect, that is, by reducing the real yield of money, improving the households’ holdings of non-currency assets, and pushing up the savings rate of the economy, thus promoting economic growth. The second is the structure effect, that is, reducing the ratio of the production capital to the bubble assets by affecting the portfolio, and intensifies economic virtualization and restrains the economic growth. When the risk of bubble assets is relatively small, the structural effect will dominate, and the increase of money growth rate would only lead to continuous flow of capital to bubble assets and impede economic growth. Further policy simulation results show that the combination of macro-prudential policy tools and monetary policy can prevent the economy from shifting to virtual, as well as maximize social welfare. 
文章编号WP1323 
登载时间2019-01-08 
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