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高速铁路、市场准入与经济增长
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TitleHigh-Speed Railway, Market Access and Economic Growth  
作者邹薇 陈亮恒 熊俊珂  
AuthorZou Wei,Chen Liangheng and xiongjunke  
作者单位武汉大学经济与管理学院 
OrganizationWuHan University 
作者Emailzouwei@whu.edu.cn,lianghengchen@163.com,lhenryeuler@126.com 
中文关键词高速铁路 交通基础设施 市场准入 经济增长 
Key WordsHigh-speed Railway; Transport Infrastructure; Market Access; Economy Growth 
内容提要本文建立一般均衡贸易模型,采用“市场准入”方法,通过测度高速铁路网络的扩张对每个地级市市场准入的影响,全局性地考察高速铁路开通对经济增长的总效应。实证结果表明:高速铁路的开通对经济增长有正的促进影响,市场准入每提高一个百分点,实际收入增加0.123(控制区域固定效应)或0.121(控制省级固定效应)个百分点;经过一系列稳健性检验,结论仍成立;通过反事实计量方法测算高速铁路对经济发展的加总效应和分布效应,发现如果在2015年移除所有高速铁路,则实际收入下降最高达9.4%,但高铁的分布效应在不同地区并不一致。此外,考察高速铁路对第二产业和第三产业的影响,发现高铁对第三产业的影响更突出。 
AbstractThe investment of transport infrastructure has long been considered one of the key factors in promoting economic growth. The transport infrastructure mainly affects the economy through both the direct effect and the indirect effect, the former refers to taking transport infrastructure as investment goods, while the latter regards it as quasi-public goods externally. The construction of high-speed railway is an important part of China’s infrastructure construction in the past decade. The mileage of high-speed railway has reached 19,000 km by the end of 2015, and will double and reach 38,000 km by 2025. Then there would have constructed the high-speed rail network which quickly connects the regions and cities. The opening of high-speed railway has significant impact on China’s economic development, but does the opening of the high-speed railway promote the regional economic growth from the positive spillover effect, or does the economic condition becomes worse due to the siphon effect? Many of the existing researches use difference in difference or spatial econometric methods to examine the high-speed rail’s impact on the economy by selecting some of the high-speed rail lines, but there are few to study the causal effect of high-speed rail opening comprehensively. This paper sets up a general equilibrium trade model, and derives a reduced form expression for the impact of transport infrastructure on income—market access, which is the sum over trading partners’ income, discounted by the bilateral trade costs and by the market access of the trading partners. Market access captures the direct and indirect impacts on each city from changes in transport infrastructure, then accurately measures the impact of changes in transportation infrastructure on economic growth. The advantage of estimating the impact of market access, rather than estimating the impact of local railroad density, is that it covers the full effect of railway network, and the market access of each region or city is influenced by changes elsewhere in the railroad network. The model predicts a log-linear relationship between income and market access, which provides useful guidance for the estimating equation of empirical analysis. This paper adopts the market access approach to investigate the aggregate effects of high-speed railway opening on economic growth based on China’s city-level panel data from 2006 to 2015. The main findings are: the high-speed rail opening has a positive impact on economic growth, and 1% increase in market access is associated with a 0.123(control regional fixed effect) or 0.121(control provincial fixed effect) percentage increase in real income; using counterfactual econometrics, we measure the aggregate and distributional consequences of high-speed rail on economy, and find that if removing all high-speed rail in 2015, the real income is estimated to decrease by 9.4%, but the distribution effect of high-speed rail is not consistent in different regions. Furthermore, investigating the impact of high-speed rail on secondary and tertiary industries, we find the tertiary industries turn out more sensitive to high speed rail opening. Therefore, the government should further accelerate the construction of high speed rail to promote economic growth; In the meantime, high-speed rail construction in different regions should be targeting differently to reduce regional differences. In addition, the government should pay attention to the combination of different modes of transport, so as to obtain the optimal transportation cost and maximize the externalities to promote economic growth.  
文章编号WP1321 
登载时间2018-12-25 
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