转型中的我国数量与价格混合型货币政策规则
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| Title | Admixed Quantity Rule and InterestRule in China’s Monetary Transition
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| 作者 | 李宏瑾 苏乃芳 |
| Author | Li Hongjin and Su Naifang |
| 作者单位 | 中国人民银行 |
| Organization | The People's Bank Of China |
| 作者Email | leehongjin@163.com;sunf013@126.com |
| 中文关键词 | 货币数量规则 泰勒规则 货币政策规则 价格型货币调控 |
| Key Words | Quantity Rule；Taylor Rule；Monetary Policy Rule, Price-based Monetary Policy |
| 内容提要 | 本文分别基于货币数量交易方程式和货币效用模型，从理论上分析了货币数量规则与利率价格规则的等价关系，并构建了符合中国货币政策框架转型中的数量与价格工具混合型货币政策规则。相关推论表明，正是由于数量和价格混合型货币规则，在利率低于均衡水平的利率管制情形下，中国的货币超发并未引发恶性通胀；在此条件下，修正的物价稳定泰勒原理表明，利率调整幅度小于通胀变化仍能够实现物价稳定；反之，如果货币增速趋向最优水平或货币缺口为负，利率调整要大于仅进行利率调控的泰勒原理的幅度，利率波动也更大。对中国的经验分析支持了货币流通速度与利率的相关假设及推论所解释的中国货币调控典型性事实；我国具有显著的流动性效应，利率传导机制畅通有效。在利率管制基本放开和流动性格局逆转的当下，货币政策价格调控方式转型的必要性和迫切性日益上升，转型的条件日趋成熟。 |
| Abstract | In this article, we analyze the quantity and price mixed monetary policy rule in China based on monetary quantity equation and money in utility model. We further inferred that due to the quantity and price-mixed monetary rule, as the interest rate is lower than the equivalent level, the greatly growth of money supply does not increase the inflation rate significantly. In addition, if money supply grow lower than the potential level, the adjustment of interest rate should be greater than Taylor rule. The empirical analysis verified our findings and inference. There are significant liquidity effect and effective transmission channel of interest rate in China.The accelerating pace of interest liberalization has signified the importance and urgency of the central bank to turn to price-based monetary policy, and the monetary transformation condition is being more and more satisfied. |
| 文章编号 | WP1314 |
| 登载时间 | 2018-12-12 |
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