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中国制造业与生产性服务业动态协调发展实证研究——基于系统耦合与优化的视角
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TitleDynamic coordination development research of manufacturing industry and manufacture-related service industry in China  
作者唐晓华 张欣钰  
AuthorTang Xiaohua and Zhang Xinyu  
作者单位辽宁大学经济学院 
OrganizationEconomics Collage, Liaoning University 
作者Emailxhtang0818@126.com;zxy_881125@sina.com 
中文关键词制造业;生产性服务业;耦合协调度;存增量特征 
Key Wordsmanufacturing industry; manufacture-related service industry; coupling coordination degree; increment and stock 
内容提要本文先基于耦合协调视角,分别从行业和区域层面测度2007~2014年制造业与生产性服务业间的总体发展水平及耦合协调程度,后基于优化视角通过对增存量系数的调节来模拟产业耦合协调的演化发展趋势。实证结果表明:(1)生产性服务业发展略滞后于制造业,两产业间整体耦合协调度并不理想,仅由初始的失调衰退阶段逐步发展至中度协调阶段;(2)从产业耦合协调度和综合发展指数这两个维度出发,将两产业耦合协调演化发展归纳为波动同步型、衍化趋同型、单产业主导型3种耦合发展模式,其中单产业主导型的耦合发展模式由于组合内产业发展水平的不平衡制约了产业间的耦合协调程度,而组合内产业发展速度相对平稳则有助于尽快跨过耦合裂痕;(3)现阶段制造业与生产性服务业的存量资源优势是促进两产业耦合协调提升的主要动力来源,积极推进制造业和生产性服务业做优存量、培育高质增量的相关产业政策,将有助于两产业耦合协调的良性发展。 
AbstractBased on the perspective of coupling coordination, the article measures the overall development level and coupling coordination degree of manufacturing industry and manufacture-related service industry from 2007 to 2014. The measurement was made from the aspect of industry and regional level separately. And refer to the sector of industry scale, economic benefits and growth potential, social contribution, the evaluation model was built and through the model we can simulate the trend of coupling coordination degree by modulating the coefficient of increment and stock. The empirical results show that : (1) the overall development level of manufacture-related service industry is lagging behind manufacturing industry and the coupling coordination degree between the industries is not ideal. It improved gradually from type of recession to moderate coordination. (2) according to the industry comprehensive development index, the paper summarized the coupling coordination development type of manufacturing industry and manufacture-related service industry to fluctuant synchronization, convergence of evolution and unipolar dominant. The study also shows that the industrial development level is essential to the coupling coordination degree of two industries. In the coupling coordination development type of unipolar dominant, the low development level of manufacture-related service industry restricts the coupling coordination degree between the two industries. And the type of synchronization can contribute to step over the difference of coupling coordination. (3) at the present stage, stock resources advantage is the main power source to improve the coupling coordination development level of two industries. Hence the correlated polices of two industries to optimize the stock resources and cultivate high-quality increment resources are rather crucial to advance the coupling coordination degree of manufacturing industry and manufacture-related service industry. 
文章编号WP1310 
登载时间2018-12-04 
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