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人口约束、中间产品本地专业化与企业出口决策——基于微观空间离散选择模型的研究
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TitlePopulation Constraint, Local Specialization of Intermediate Products and Enterprise Export Decision  
作者周末 高方澍 李增棣  
AuthorZhou Mo,Gao Fangshu and Li Zengdi  
作者单位对外经济贸易大学;中国人民大学 
OrganizationUniversity of International Business and Economics; Renmin University of China 
作者Email744216713@qq.com;gao_fangshu@163.com;470089682@qq.com 
中文关键词人口约束 中间产品本地专业化 出口决策机制 
Key WordsPopulation constraint, Local specialization of intermediate products, Export decision mechanism 
内容提要长期维持低生育率的条件下,中国的工业企业是否已经由劳动力无限供给转向面临人口约束?这种约束会对中国企业的出口造成什么样的影响?这种影响一旦被证实,将意味着之前国际贸易研究当中时常被忽略的人口约束因素,在未来将会成为影响中国贸易增长和经济增长动力转换的关键。本文将企业还原到其所在的县一级行政区域当中,将所在区域人口因素等反映区域特征的变量纳入理论框架构建模型,并利用计划生育红旗县指标构造田野实验,在微观离散空间滞后计量模型的基础上实证检验了人口约束对于微观企业出口决策的影响。本文的重要发现是:1.人口约束会对企业出口意愿产生负面影响。这种影响对于劳动密集型的出口企业来说最为明显,而对于非劳动密集型的企业来说则不显著。2.人口约束会通过降低本地专业化的中间产品类别数量增加企业的边际成本,从而影响企业的出口选择,即存在“人口约束→中间产品类别丰裕程度→企业出口行为”的中介机制。本文的理论和实证发现为积极应对人口结构变化对我国经济增长和外贸发展的冲击,制定合理的区域协同发展政策,提高我国制造业国际竞争力提供了有意义的政策参考依据。 
AbstractMaintaining the low fertility rate for a long time, has labor supply of China’s industrial enterprise turned from unlimited one to a population constraint? What impact does this constraint have on export of China’s enterprise? Once this effect is confirmed, it will mean that the factors, that are often ignored in the study of international trade, will be the key to the transformation of China's trade growth and economic growth in the future. This paper considers every enterprise in their county, in which the demographic factors, reflecting the regional characteristics, are added to the theoretical framework. We use ‘red flag’ county of family planning to construct field experiments, and test the impact of population constraints on the export decision of micro enterprises based on micro spatial choice model. The important findings of this paper are: 1. Population constraints will have a negative impact on the export intention. This effect is most significant for labor-intensive export enterprises, but not for labor-intensive enterprises. 2. The restriction of population will reduce the marginal cost of exports by reducing intermediate product category, thus affecting the export choice. That is, there exists an intermediary mechanism of ‘population constraints → intermediate product category → enterprise export behavior’. 3. Contrary to the results of some theoretical studies, this paper examines the mediating effect of local intermediate product output between export and population constraints, but the empirical results do not give significant supportive conclusions. The theoretical and empirical findings of this paper provide a meaningful policy suggestion to deal with the impact of population structure change on China's economic growth and foreign trade development, develop a reasonable regional coordinated development policy and improve the international competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry. 
文章编号WP1304 
登载时间2018-11-06 
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