中国大型区域贸易协定谈判的潜在经济影响
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| Title | The Potential Impacts of China Involved Mega-RTA Negotiations
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| 作者 | 李春顶 郭志芳 何传添 |
| Author | Li Chunding,Guo Zhifang and He Chuantian |
| 作者单位 | 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所;浙江财经大学经济学院;广东外语外贸大学 |
| Organization | Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;School of Economics, Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics;Research Center for International Trade and Economics, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies |
| 作者Email | chundingli@163.com; gzfgirl@163.com; cthe@gdufs.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 大型区域贸易协定 中国 数值一般均衡 福利 贸易 |
| Key Words | Mega-regional free trade agreement; China; Numerical general equilibrium; Welfare; Trade |
| 内容提要 | 加快实施自由贸易区战略、逐步构筑高标准的自由贸易区网络，是“十三五”时期中国进一步对外开放的重要举措，而大型区域贸易协定（Mega-RTA）的建设是其中的核心内容。本文构建了一个29个国家和地区的全球一般均衡大型数值模型系统，根据现有区域贸易协定谈判的现状将影响机制精确的建模到系统中，进而采用“反事实”模拟方法定量评估并比较了中国现有大型区域贸易协定谈判的潜在经济影响。模拟的结果发现：（1）这些协定都会提高中国的福利、产出、就业和贸易，其中贸易效应最强、产出和就业效应其次、福利效应相对较小；（2）协定其他成员都会获利，比较而言，经济规模小国和出口依存度高的国家受益更多，而中国在现有协定上的相对获益和贡献的份额决定了是谈判中的主导力量；（3）比较发现，亚太自贸区和区域全面经济伙伴关系协定对中国的积极作用最突出，其次是中日韩自贸区，积极效应较小的是中国-东盟自贸区升级版和中国-海合会自贸区。论文扩展和丰富了区域贸易协定的理论建模和量化分析方法，并且模拟的发现对于中国对外自由贸易区建设战略的政策选择、优先次序及谈判策略都具有政策参考价值。 |
| Abstract | Accelerating the implementation of free trade agreement strategy, and gradually building a high standard free trade agreement network, is one of important measures of China’s further opening-up policy in the thirteenth five-year plan period. The construction of mega-regional free trade agreement is the key content of this strategy. This paper builds a 29-country global general equilibrium model system, which adds the influence mechanisms into the model according to the present negotiations, to numerically simulate the potential impacts of China involved mega-regional free trade agreement negotiations. Simulation results reveal that: (1) these trade deals will improve China’s welfare, production, employment and trade, and comparatively trade effects are the strongest, production and employment effects are listed in the second and the trade effects are the least. (2) Other member countries all will gain from the trade deal, and countries with small economic scale and high export dependence will gain more. China’s comparative gains and contributions determined its leading role in the agreement negotiation. (3) Comparatively, FTAAP and RCEP will benefit China the most, China-Japan-Korea FTA will benefit China the second most, and China-ASEAN FTA upgrade and China-GCC FTA will benefit China the least. This paper extends the modelling and numerical methodology of RTA research, and gives policy implications to China’s free trade agreement strategy. |
| 文章编号 | wp1297 |
| 登载时间 | 2018-10-10 |
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