非理性的房地产需求——基于房地产的商品和金融属性的研究
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| Title | “Irrational” Housing Demand——A Study based on the Dual Attributes of House
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| 作者 | 龚刚 张路 魏熙晔 |
| Author | Gong Gang, Zhang Lu and Wei Xiye |
| 作者单位 | 云南财经大学金融研究院；南开大学经济学院浙江工业大学经济管理学院 |
| Organization | Yunnan University of finance and Economics; Nankai University; Zhejiang University of Technology |
| 作者Email | gonggang@vip.163.com；zhanglu_nk@126.com；weixiye@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 房地产需求 住房价格 无套利条件 |
| Key Words | Housing Demand;Housing price;Non-arbitrage Condition |
| 内容提要 | 对家庭而言，住房具有一般商品和金融资产之双重属性。基于这一特征，本文构建了一个包含“异质性预期”的房地产需求模型。研究表明，住房市场表现出与一般商品市场不同的特征：房价增长率越高，对住房的需求越大。利用中国的数据，我们对这一结论进行了实证。在随后的动态系统分析中，我们发现上述特征使得住房市场极容易产生泡沫，并且当泡沫积累到一定程度时，极容易破裂。基于上述研究结论，我们认为政府管理房地产业的原则应该是：支持和发展作为商品属性的房地产需求，限制和管理好具有金融资产属性的房地产需求。 |
| Abstract | In modern economics, a house is considered in two properties: one as a normal commodity, and the other as a financial asset. This paper studies the housing market based on dual properties. We construct a dynamic model with “heterogeneous expectations”. We find that the higher the growth rate of housing price, the larger is the demand for house. This is contrasted to the normal demand curve of a commodity. This result is also supported by the empirical data of Chinese economy. The dynamic analysis further proves that these dual properties make the housing market more vulnerable to bubble, and thus greatly hurts the economy when the bubble breaks. Based on this analysis, we suggest that the principle of government to manage housing market should be the restriction of the demand as “financial asset”, while supporting the demand as normal commodity. |
| 文章编号 | WP1289 |
| 登载时间 | 2018-08-01 |
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