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量化宽松政策,大宗商品价格与输入性通胀——基于微观价格的理论与实证分析
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TitleQuantitative Easing, Commodity Prices and Imported inflation——Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on Micro-Price  
作者孙浦阳 张靖佳 蓝锦海  
AuthorSun Puyang,Zhang Jingjia and Lan Jinhai  
作者单位南开大学经济学院 
OrganizationNankai University 
作者Emailpuyangsun@nankai.edu.cn;vanillajiajia@163.com;nkulanjinhai@163.com 
中文关键词量化宽松政策 输入型通货膨胀 大宗商品价格 挤入挤出效应 
Key WordsQuantitative Easing; Imported inflation; Commodity Prices; Crowd in-out Effect 
内容提要本文通过构建一个包含量化宽松政策的“资产配置挤入挤出”的模型,首先从理论层面有效诠释了美国量化宽松(QE)政策通过影响投资市场,对大宗商品的国内价格造成影响,最终可能引起我国输入性通货膨胀的压力。基于理论假设,本文首次使用国家发改委价格监控中心的月度频率的商品市场的实际销售价格数据,运用最近邻匹配法(PSM)和倍差法(DID)计量方法,选取65种主要大宗商品月度市场价格,一方面通过区分不同对外开放程度的商品价格对量化宽松政策的敏感程度,有效检验了美国量化宽松政策对我国大宗商品价格影响;另一方面,通过不同类别的大宗商品的差异性反应,有效揭示了我国政府价格调控对美国量化宽松政策带来输入型通货膨胀的阻断作用,验证了市场调控价格的有效性。具体而言,美国前两轮量化宽松政策对大宗商品的影响以投资“挤入”效应为主,并通过溢出效应,提高了部分未受政府价格调控的大宗商品价格。并且,我们也证实了,受到政府价格调控的大宗商品价格保持稳定,并不受美国QE政策的影响。因此,我国的市场价格调控机制有效地缓解了这种输入性通胀的压力,最终稳定了国内商品价格。 
AbstractIn this paper, by constructing a model of "asset allocation crowding and squeezing" with quantitative easing policy, we effectively explains that the quantitative easing (QE) policy of the United States affects the domestic prices of commodities by influencing the investment market, which may finally lead to the pressure of imported inflation. Based on the theoretical assumptions, this paper first uses the real sales price data of the monthly market of the National Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center, and uses the Propensity Score Matching method (PSM) and the Difference-in-Difference method (DID) to select 65 major commodities monthly market Price. On the one hand by distinguishing the price sensitivity of products with different degrees on the quantitative easing policy, we effectively test the influence of the US quantitative easing policy on China's commodity prices; on the other hand, through different types of commodity differential response, we effectively reveal that the government's price regulation provides blocking effect on the imported inflation caused by the US quantitative easing policy, verifying the effectiveness of the government's price regulation. Specifically, the impact of the first two rounds of quantitative easing in the United States on commodity prices is dominated by the investment "crowded" effect, and through the spillover effect, raise some commodity prices that are not regulated by government. And we also confirmed that commodity prices regulated by government remained stable and were not affected by US QE policies. Therefore, China's market price regulation mechanism effectively alleviates the pressure of this imported inflation, and ultimately maintains the stability of the domestic commodity prices. 
文章编号WP1267 
登载时间2018-03-06 
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