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中国货币政策规则的比较分析——基于DSGE模型的三规则视角
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TitleA Comparative Study of China’s Monetary Policy Rules——On the Perspective of Three Rules Based on DSGE Model  
作者王曦 汪玲 彭玉磊 宋晓飞  
AuthorWang Xi, Wang Ling, Peng Yulei, and Song Xiaofei  
作者单位中山大学岭南学院 
OrganizationSun Yat-sen University 
作者Emaillnswx@mail.sysu.edu.cn;wangling_sdu@163.com;wangling_sdu@163.com;lnsongxf@foxmail.com 
中文关键词利率规则 数量规则 混合规则 比较分析 DSGE 
Key WordsInterest Rate Rule; Quantity Rule; Mixed Rule; Comparative Study; DSGE 
内容提要单一的利率规则或数量规则均不足以反映我国货币政策操作的实际情况。有鉴于此,本文构建了具有并行性和选择性特征的货币政策混合规则形式;并设定推导新凯恩斯DSGE模型,通过校准和贝叶斯方法分别估计了利率规则、数量规则和混合规则下三个模型的参数。之后我们比较了不同规则模型在一阶矩和二阶矩上的实证输出,并与现实数据对比,发现新的混合规则能更好地拟合中国经济的实际运行。再基于等价消费稳态偏离方法,对比了不同规则模型在遭遇外部冲击时的福利表现,发现央行使用具有并行选择特征的混合规则,可以提高调控的效率,减少福利损失。概言之,无论在实证(是什么)还是在规范(应该是什么)的意义上,新混合规则均优于利率规则或数量规则。 
AbstractEither pure interest-rate rule or quantity rule fails to reflect the practical implement of China’s monetary policies. On this account, the paper constructs a mixed monetary policy rule with inclusiveness and discretion. By developing a New Keynesian DEGE model, firstly, we use calibration and Bayesian method to separately estimate the parameters in the model under the interest-rate rule, quantity rule and the mixed rule. Then, we compare first-order and second-order moments of these variables' differences between the data and estimated values under three rules. We conclude that the mixed monetary policy can match the economic performance much better, and is more suitable to describe the central bank’s behavior. Based on the welfare analysis represented by equivalent consumption deviation from steady state, the paper indicates that the central bank can utilize some discretion to stabilize the macro-economy and minimize the welfare cost when different shocks arise. In short, the new mixed rule dominates interest-rate rule or quantity rule both positively and normatively. 
文章编号WP1264 
登载时间2018-02-23 
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