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房价、迁移摩擦与中国城市的规模分布——理论模型与结构式估计
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TitleHousing Price, Migration Friction and the City-Size Distribution in China——Theory Model and Structural Estimation  
作者刘修岩 李松林  
AuthorLiu Xiuyan and Li Songlin  
作者单位东南大学经济管理学院 
OrganizationSchool of economics & management, Southeast University 
作者Email lxiuyan320@seu.edu.cn;lslseu@163.com 
中文关键词迁移摩擦 结构式估计 城市规模分布 
Key WordsMigration Friction;Structural Estimation;City-Size Distribution 
内容提要决定城市规模分布的关键因素有哪些?中国城市体系扁平化的形成机制又是什么?为回答这些问题,本文建立了一个考虑异质性个体迁移决策和房价内生性的城市体系模型,将影响城市规模分布的因素分解为效率、舒适度、迁移摩擦和房价四个方面:较高的效率和舒适度会促使城市规模增加,但相伴而生的高房价和迁移摩擦等集聚负外部性会抑制大城市规模的进一步扩张。进而基于结构式估计方法对中国城市的效率、迁移摩擦、房价和舒适度等特征进行了量化,并通过一系列反事实实验模拟了这些因素的变化对中国城市规模分布的影响。研究发现,效率、迁移摩擦和舒适度在中国城市规模分布的决定中发挥着重要的作用;消除城市间的房价差异几乎不影响人口的再配置,而消除迁移摩擦则会导致大规模的人口重新配置和带来显著的福利增进效应,这意味着迁移摩擦的存在是造成中国城市体系扁平化的关键致因。因此,全面推进户籍制度改革,有序放开城市的落户限制,进一步降低人口迁移中的空间摩擦,才能有效发挥市场的内生化力量,促进城市体系空间布局的优化。 
AbstractWhat are the key factors of the city-size distribution? Why is urban system in China so even that primacy index of a city cluster is usually lower? In order to answer these questions, this paper constructs theoretical model involving with migration decisions of heterogeneous individuals and also endogenous housing prices. We attribute the existing city-size distribution to four dimensions including productivity, amenity, migration friction and housing prices. That is to say, higher economic productivity and better amenity both increase the population scale of city, but consequent higher housing prices and negative externalities such as migration friction could hamper further growing of urban size. We then quantities the productivity, amenity, housing price and migration friction of cities in China using structural estimations, and simulate how these factors could change the city-size distribution by counter factual experiment. We find that key determinants of city size in China are productivity, living amenity as well as migration friction. Housing price gap between cities scarcely influence the distribution of urban population while new allocation of urban population and substantial welfare improvement would have occurred once there is no so-called migration friction. This conclusion suggests the migration friction is the key factor leading to this even urban system. Seen in this point of view, gradually eradicating the “hukou” restrictions and lower the “friction” of labor migration is the predominant way to stimulate the forming of more efficient urban system through market mechanism. 
文章编号WP1261 
登载时间2018-02-05 
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