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房价上涨与中国制造业的“用工难”问题——基于286个地级市数据的考察
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TitleHouse Price and "Labor Shortage" of Chinese Manufacture  
作者佟家栋 刘竹青  
AuthorTong Jiadong; Liu Zhuqing  
作者单位南开大学经济学院;天津师范大学经济学院 
OrganizationNankai Univesity; Tianjin Normal University 
作者Emailliuzhuqing198688@163.com 
中文关键词房价上涨 制造业就业 劳动力的结构性错配 “用工难”问题 
Key Words Increasing House Price; Manufacturing Employment; Structural Mismatches; "Labor Shortage" 
内容提要基于2004-2013年286个地级市的数据,本文检验了房价上涨对中国制造业就业的影响及作用机制,试图为中国制造业的“用工难”问题提供了新的解释。基本研究发现:房价上涨显著促进了建筑业的就业扩张,“挤出”了制造业用工,劳动力就业在制造业与建筑业之间出现明显的结构性错配,从而加剧了制造业的“用工难”问题。拓展分析还表明:(1)金融危机后,房价上涨对中国制造业就业的不利影响更为严重,格外冲击了第二产业占主导的地区或沿海地区的制造业就业;(2)房价上涨主要“挤出”了低素质劳动力在制造业的就业,尤其降低了低学历劳动力在非国有制造业或劳动密集型制造业的就业。此外,本文还验证了房价上涨影响中国制造业用工的两个渠道,即工资竞争效应和规模扩张效应。因此,本文认为房价上涨会明显中国制造业的用工条件,对制造业的未来发展和转型与升级、甚至社会的稳定与安全都均有重要影响。 
Abstract Using the data of 286 Chinese cities, the paper examines the effects of house price increase on Chinese manufacture employment, in order to explain the reason of "labor shortage" in Chinese manufacture with a new perspective. The basic results show increasing house price significantly rises the labor demand in construction industry and "squeeze out" the labor in manufacture, which results in structural mismatches in the workforce. This paper also finds: (1)The negative effects of increasing house prices on Chinese manufacture's employment becomes more significant after the financial crisis; (2) The increasing house price especially reduces the employment low-skill labor in Chinese manufacture, with the largest effects concentrated among labor with poor education in non-stated manufacturing firms or labor-intensive manufacturing firms. Finally, this paper also examines how the increasing house price would affect the "labor shortage" of manufacture and find there exists two channels-wage competition effects and scale expansion effect. Therefore, it is shown that increasing house price will change the labor market faced by Chinese manufacture, which would be an important determinant of Chinese manufacture's development and upgrading. 
文章编号WP1260 
登载时间2018-02-05 
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