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经济不确定性会弱化货币政策有效性吗?──来自中国的经验证据
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TitleWill Economic Uncertainty Weaken the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy?  
作者苏治 刘程程 位雪丽  
AuthorSu Zhi,Liu Chengcheng and Wei Xueli  
作者单位中央财经大学统计与数学学院 
OrganizationSchool of Statistics and Mathematics,Central University of Finance and Economics 
作者Emailsuzhi1218@163.com;lcc921018@163.com;weixueli87@163.com 
中文关键词经济不确定性 经济产出 价格水平 金融危机 
Key WordsEconomic Uncertainty;Economic Output;Price Level;Financial Crisis 
内容提要近年来,经济不确定性增加了央行货币政策操作与执行的困难,使得产业结构升级等需要资金支持的多项经济改革任务面临挑战,准确地把握经济不确定性与货币政策有效性之间的关系已成为一个重要的研究方向。本文从理论上厘清了两者间的具体影响路径,将中国股市波动率和EPU指数作为不确定性的度量,构造了经济产出和价格水平因子作为货币政策调控效果的衡量指标,系统考察了高、中、低三种不确定性程度下的政策有效性,并将金融危机前后的差异状况进行了对比。结果显示:不确定性仅会在量上影响货币政策调控效果,并不会改变其作用方向;两者之间呈现反向变动,即不确定性会削弱货币政策有效性;该弱化程度在金融危机后表现更加明显。本文的政策涵义在于:中央银行应根据经济形势变化,审时度势地把握政策调控的方向、节奏与力度,实现货币政策的动态调整与优化,同时强化政策间的协调配合机制,以避免大幅度经济波动下的政策被动,增强决策执行的准确性和有效性。 
AbstractIn recent years,economic uncertainty increases the difficulties of the central bank’s policy operation and implementation,and it makes the industrial structural upgrade as well as other economic reform tasks which need funds to support face more challenges,it has become an important research direction to accurately grasp the relationship between economic uncertainty and the effectiveness of monetary policy. This paper clarifies the specific path between the two aspects theoretically,regards China’s stock market volatility and the EPU index as measures of economic uncertainty,constructs the economic output factor and the price level factor to measure the policy’s regulation effects,inspects systematically the effectiveness of monetary policy in three cases with high、medium and low degree of uncertainty,and compares the differences before and after the financial crisis. The results show:economic uncertainty will only affect the monetary policy tools’ regulation and control effect quantitatively,and will not change its role in the direction;there is a reverse change between the two,that is,economic uncertainty will weaken the policy’s effectiveness;the weakening degree mentioned above has become more evident after the financial crisis. This paper’s policy implications are:the central bank should regulate the direction,rhythm and intensity of the policy timely and moderately based on the economic changes to achieve the policy’s dynamic adjustment and optimization,meanwhile,strengthen the coordination and cooperation mechanism between the policies,so as to avoid the policy passivity under serious economic fluctuations,and enhance the accuracy as well as the effectiveness of decision making. 
文章编号WP1258 
登载时间2018-01-26 
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