人口结构、劳动力质量与全要素生产率
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| Title | Demography, Labor Quality and Total Factor Productivity
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| 作者 | 易祯 朱超 |
| Author | Yi Zhen and Zhu Chao |
| 作者单位 | 首都经济贸易大学金融学院 |
| Organization | The School of Finance, Capital University of Economics and Business |
| 作者Email | yizhen2010@126.com，chao_zhu@126.com |
| 中文关键词 | 人口年龄结构 劳动力质量 全要素生产率 |
| Key Words | Demography; Labor Quality; Total Factor Productivity |
| 内容提要 | 全要素生产率（TFP）是经济增长的源泉之一，但研究中往往忽视经济主体“人”的因素。与前有研究通常认为TFP基本等价于技术进步不同，我们认为其还应包括技术之外的人口年龄结构因素，后者通过劳动力质量渠道产生影响。本文建立了封闭经济下内生TFP多部门动态一般均衡模型（DGE）开展数值模拟，结果显示少年人口（0-24岁）占比上升会导致TFP下降，而劳动年龄人口（25-64岁）和老年人口（65岁及以上）占比上升显著促进TFP。基于全球170个国家1851-2014年的长周期数据支持了理论发现，这一结论在特定历史片段（第二次工业革命时期、非世界大战时期和美国样本）中稳健成立，也不因TFP度量方程、人口变量选取和数据库的改变而变。随后，本文验证了劳动力质量在人口年龄结构影响TFP中的渠道作用。成年人口比例增加会提升工作经验和教育程度，从劳动力质量角度提升TFP。本文的贡献是从人口学视角尤其是劳动力质量渠道解释了TFP。在我国人口学特征发生显著变迁的背景下，本文的政策含义体现在，提升劳动力质量，以“质”的提升对冲“量”的下降，通过TFP的提高以实现经济更长时期的平稳增长。 |
| Abstract | The role of population demographics in economic development is one of the oldest themes in economics. Recent literature provides empirical support for an effect of demographic structure on economic growth. This literature does not give attention to the possibility that age structure might also have an effect on total factor productivity (TFP). This paper characterizes the behavior of economic participant decision-making based on multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model (DGE), and finds that demography has a significant impact on TFP. Using 170 countries 1960-2014 panel data, the authors test the relationship between demographics and TFP. The results suggest a statistically significant positive correlation between the fraction of the population aged 45 or elder and TFP, while the cohort aged 0 to 25 has a negative effect. This paper contributes to literature on identifying and verifying the labor quality as the channel through which the population age structure influences TFP. This finding is robust when the sample is restricted to 1851-1950 specific historical episodes. |
| 文章编号 | WP1254 |
| 登载时间 | 2018-01-12 |
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