首都经济贸易大学金融学院招聘启事
工作论文
当前位置:首页 > 工作论文
货币政策对民间借贷利率的作用机制与实施效果
阅读全文         下载全文
TitleTransmission Mechanism and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy on Interest Rate of Informal Finance  
作者潘彬 谢平 金雯雯  
AuthorPan bin,Xie Ping and Jin Wen Wen  
作者单位宁波大学金融研究院;清华大学五道口金融学院;温州大学金融研究院 
OrganizationFinancial Research Institute, Ningbo University; b: School of Wudaokou Financial, Tsinghua Universit;School of Business ,Wenzhou Universit 
作者Emailpanbin109@163.com;xiep@china-inv.cn;00011096@wzu.edu.cn 
中文关键词货币政策 民间借贷利率 中介效应 实施效果 
Key WordsMonetary policy; interest rate of private lending; Intermediary effect;Implementation effect 
内容提要对我国金融环境中二元金融结构和利率双轨制特征的的忽视可能导致最优货币政策的错误估计从而降低货币政策效率,本文试图从货币政策影响民间借贷利率的作用机制入手实证分析我国货币政策对民间借贷利率的实施效果并提出政策启示。论文运用回归分析模型与中介效应检验方法,以“宏观货币政策实施→信贷市场变化→民间借贷利率调整”为分析路径,研究发现,紧缩性的货币政策引导民间借贷利率上行的同时价格型与数量型货币政策工具的实施效果存在差异,其中法定存款准备金率政策能够显著影响民间借贷利率走势,而民间贷借利率对利率政策调整表现出一定的刚性。研究结论表明,在货币政策对民间借贷利率的传导路径中,以信贷利率、信贷规模以及银行风险承担为中介变量的中介效应显著,表明信贷市场通过机会成本渠道、资产替代渠道以及逆向选择渠道发挥了显著的中介效应。 
AbstractThe failure in heeding the dual financial structure and the resultant doubletrack inte-rest rate system in China's financial environment will lead to incorrect estimation in producing optimal monetary polices, and thus lowers the efficiency of monetary policies. This paper empir-ically analyzed the mechanism of how monetary policies affect the interest rate of private lend-ing, and further discussed the relevant effect in China's case and their monetray policy implicati-ons. This paper employed a regression analysis model and a mediator effect test procedure, and followed an analysis path of "macro-monetary policy-- change in credit market--adjustment in interest rate in private lending". We found that contractionary monetary policy results in the rise in the interest rate of private lending with different effects from pricetype and quantitytype monetary policy tools; and the required deposit reserve ratio significantly affects the the interest rate of pr-ivate lending, while the interest rate of private lending shows moderate rigidity in terms of nation-al interest rate adjustment. Our research conclusions are that, among the transmission paths of the effects of monetary policies on the interest rate of private lending, the mediator effects of the credit lending rate, the credit size, and the bank rsik are the most significant, which shows that the mediator effects are significantly exerted in credit market through the channels of opportunity cost, asset substitution, and adverse selection.  
文章编号WP1240 
登载时间2017-11-17 
  • 主管单位:中国社会科学院     主办单位:中国社会科学院经济研究所
  • 经济研究杂志社版权所有 未经允许 不得转载     京ICP备10211437号
  • 本网所登载文章仅代表作者观点 不代表本网观点或意见 常年法律顾问:陆康(重光律师事务所)
  • 国际标准刊号 ISSN 0577-9154      国内统一刊号 CN11-1081/F       国内邮发代号 2-251        国外代号 M16
  • 地址:北京市西城区阜外月坛北小街2号   100836
  • 电话/传真:010-68034153
  • 本刊微信公众号:erj_weixin