货币政策对民间借贷利率的作用机制与实施效果 阅读全文
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Title | Transmission Mechanism and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy on Interest Rate of Informal Finance
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作者 | 潘彬 谢平 金雯雯 |
Author | Pan bin,Xie Ping and Jin Wen Wen |
作者单位 | 宁波大学金融研究院;清华大学五道口金融学院;温州大学金融研究院 |
Organization | Financial Research Institute, Ningbo University; b: School of Wudaokou Financial, Tsinghua Universit;School of Business ,Wenzhou Universit |
作者Email | panbin109@163.com;xiep@china-inv.cn;00011096@wzu.edu.cn |
中文关键词 | 货币政策 民间借贷利率 中介效应 实施效果 |
Key Words | Monetary policy; interest rate of private lending; Intermediary effect;Implementation effect |
内容提要 | 对我国金融环境中二元金融结构和利率双轨制特征的的忽视可能导致最优货币政策的错误估计从而降低货币政策效率,本文试图从货币政策影响民间借贷利率的作用机制入手实证分析我国货币政策对民间借贷利率的实施效果并提出政策启示。论文运用回归分析模型与中介效应检验方法,以“宏观货币政策实施→信贷市场变化→民间借贷利率调整”为分析路径,研究发现,紧缩性的货币政策引导民间借贷利率上行的同时价格型与数量型货币政策工具的实施效果存在差异,其中法定存款准备金率政策能够显著影响民间借贷利率走势,而民间贷借利率对利率政策调整表现出一定的刚性。研究结论表明,在货币政策对民间借贷利率的传导路径中,以信贷利率、信贷规模以及银行风险承担为中介变量的中介效应显著,表明信贷市场通过机会成本渠道、资产替代渠道以及逆向选择渠道发挥了显著的中介效应。 |
Abstract | The failure in heeding the dual financial structure and the resultant doubletrack inte-rest rate system in China's financial environment will lead to incorrect estimation in producing optimal monetary polices, and thus lowers the efficiency of monetary policies. This paper empir-ically analyzed the mechanism of how monetary policies affect the interest rate of private lend-ing, and further discussed the relevant effect in China's case and their monetray policy implicati-ons. This paper employed a regression analysis model and a mediator effect test procedure, and followed an analysis path of "macro-monetary policy-- change in credit market--adjustment in interest rate in private lending". We found that contractionary monetary policy results in the rise in the interest rate of private lending with different effects from pricetype and quantitytype monetary policy tools; and the required deposit reserve ratio significantly affects the the interest rate of pr-ivate lending, while the interest rate of private lending shows moderate rigidity in terms of nation-al interest rate adjustment. Our research conclusions are that, among the transmission paths of the effects of monetary policies on the interest rate of private lending, the mediator effects of the credit lending rate, the credit size, and the bank rsik are the most significant, which shows that the mediator effects are significantly exerted in credit market through the channels of opportunity cost, asset substitution, and adverse selection. |
文章编号 | WP1240 |
登载时间 | 2017-11-17 |
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