资金流向的驱动因子与结构性资产泡沫——基于引力模型的分析 阅读全文
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Title | The driving factor of capital flow and the structural asset bubble——an analysis based on the gravity model
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作者 | 李腊生 黄孝祥 张慧鹏 |
Author | Li Lasheng , Huang Xiaoxiang and Zhang Huipeng |
作者单位 | 天津财经大学 |
Organization | China Center for Economic Statistics Research,Tianjin University of Finance & Economics |
作者Email | lilasheng@tjufe.deu.cn;1398406187@qq.com; |
中文关键词 | 扩展的货币数量方程 结构性资产泡沫 货币资金吸引力 集聚效应 |
Key Words | Eextended Quantity Equation of Money; Structural Asset Bubble; Capital Attraction; Combined Effect |
内容提要 | 本文在扩展的货币数量方程框架下,借助物理学中的引力模型从理论与实证两方面来探讨实体经济与虚拟经济内部结构中货币流动的驱动因素,并依据驱动因素自身的变动特征来揭示实体经济与虚拟经济内部结构中的结构性资产泡沫,分析结果表明:在现代经济体下,货币超发只是结构性资产泡沫产生的充分条件,而非必要条件,结构性资产泡沫最主要驱动因素是市场对货币资金吸引力的非均衡性及其吸引力的集聚效应,其中的逻辑是,吸引力的非均衡性决定了货币资金流向与流速的非均衡,集聚效应则决定了这种非均衡的持续性,持续性意味着吸引力大的市场的资产价格将出现持续上涨,从而引发资产泡沫。最后,针对当前我国货币政策的职能以及调控方式和结构性资产泡沫问题,我们给出了相应的政策建议。 |
Abstract | In the framework of the Extended Quantity Equation of Money, this paper using the gravitational model in physics, investigates the driving factors of money flow in the internal structure of The Real and Fictitious Economy from the theoretical and empirical aspects, and reveals the structural asset bubbles in the internal structure of The Real and Fictitious economy on the basis of the dynamic characteristics of the driving factors. The results show that: under the modern economy, the over-plus money supply is only a sufficient condition for the formation of structural asset bubbles, rather than a necessary condition. The main driving force of the structural asset bubble is the non-equilibrium of the market's attractiveness to money and its combined effect. The logic is that the imbalance of attraction determines the unbalance of money capital flow and velocity, and the combined effect determine the sustainability of this non-equilibrium. Sustainability means that prices of assets in the market whose attraction is greater will continue to rise, triggering asset bubbles. Finally, according to the function and the way of control of monetary policy in our country and structural asset bubbles, we give corresponding policy recommendations. |
文章编号 | WP1238 |
登载时间 | 2017-11-10 |
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