养老金体系改革对中国经济动态效率的影响
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| Title | The Effect on Pension Reform on Economic Dynamic Efficiency
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| 作者 | 杨继军 张二震 |
| Author | Yang Jijun and Zhang Erzhen |
| 作者单位 | 南京财经大学国际经贸学院；南京大学经济学院 |
| Organization | School of International Economics and Trade, Nanjing University Of Finance And Economics；School of Economics, Nanjing University |
| 作者Email | yangjj1998@163.com；zrz@nju.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 现收现付制 部分积累制 养老金替代率 动态效率 |
| Key Words | Pay-as- you-go Scheme; Partial Funded Scheme; Pension Substitution Rate; Dynamic Efficiency |
| 内容提要 | 本文构建了一个开放经济条件下涵盖养老金因素的OLG模型，以考察养老金体系改革对中国经济动态效率的影响。基于1997-2014年省际数据，动用SYS-GMM方法研究发现，现收现付制向部分积累制转轨对储蓄生成了显著的“挤入”效应，助长了资本过度积累的基础，加剧了经济的动态无效，且在分布中心位置影响趋强，在上尾和下尾附近趋弱。由于基础养老金的全国统筹未能得以落实，流动劳动者的养老保险关系转移受到梗阻，东西部地区的养老金替代率系数以及相应的显著性水平差异较大。引入开放因素后，养老金替代率与FDI（或出口）交互项系数显著为负，表明要素（或商品）的国际流动可以缓解养老金体系改革对经济动态效率的恶化，中国在开放背景下实施养老金改革要占优于封闭状态。因此，不能照搬成熟经济体经验，急于向完全积累制转轨，可以考虑将名义账户制作为养老金改革中的一项过渡性制度安排；废除梗阻基础养老金全国统筹的制度障碍，逐步放开资本市场，提高中国经济运行的动态效率。 |
| Abstract | Dynamic efficiency is the core of capital accumulation and economic growth.The paper collects 30 provincial data of china on 1997-2014 and uses the SYS-GMM method to examine the impact of pension reform on dynamic efficiency. The results show the transition from pay-as- you-go scheme to funded scheme has a significant crowded in effect on savings, which contributes to the foundation of excessive accumulation of capital and exacerbates the dynamic invalid of Chinese economy. In the meanwhile, this impact tends to becomes stronger in the center of the distribution but weaker near the upper end and the lower end. Since the national co-ordinate of basic pension not be implemented and transfer of the flowing worker pension insurance relationship is hampered, the regression results are quite different in different regions. The interaction coefficient is -0.027 between pension replacement rate and FDI, indicating that the international mobility of elements plays a buffer role on deterioration of the economic dynamic efficiency, China implement pension reform under the background of capital account liberalization is superior to the closed state. Thus, this paper argues that we can’t copy the experience of mature economies to make the transition to a fully funded system eagerly. On one hand, we can consider NDC as transitional institutional arrangement in the long-term reform of pensions. On the other hand, we can implement the national co-ordination of basic pension; abolish the institutional obstacles which hinder domestic integration of pension; open capital markets gradually; improve the efficiency of capital allocation in the larger context. |
| 文章编号 | WP1217 |
| 登载时间 | 2017-08-28 |
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