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环境规制引起了污染就近转移吗?——来自中国地级及以上城市的证据
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TitleDoes Environmental regulation cause pollution to transfer nearby?——Evidence from Chinese cities  
作者沈坤荣 金刚 方娴  
AuthorShen Kunrong, Jin Gang and Fang Xian  
作者单位南京大学商学院;复旦大学经济学院 
OrganizationSchool of Economics,Nanjing University;.School of Economics,Fudan University 
作者Emailshenkr@nju.edu.cn;nanqiao.1@163.com;fangthea@163.com 
中文关键词环境规制 污染就近转移 产业结构污染化 空间自滞后模型 
Key WordsEnvironmental regulation; Pollution nearby transferring; Polluted industrial structure; Spatial lag of X model 
内容提要污染就近转移既无法利用污染治理的规模效应,又未能根本性规避污染集中排放的问题,会导致环境治理效果大打折扣。本文首次基于空间自滞后模型(SLX),将城市年鉴数据、公众环境研究中心数据及工业企业数据进行匹配,采用工具变量法回归(2SLS)对邻近城市环境规制与本地污染排放之间的因果关系进行了识别,研究发现确实存在环境规制引发污染就近转移的现象,在考虑了一系列稳健性检验和安慰剂检验后结论仍然成立。进一步的讨论揭示出:(1)环境规制引发的污染就近转移效应在150km达到峰值,即污染基本就近转移到周边城市。(2)随着时间的推移,污染就近转移效应表现出更为明显的就近特征。(3)环境规制不仅提升了污染迁入地的产业规模,更为糟糕的是深化了污染迁入地的产业结构污染程度。(4)污染迁出地的产业退出壁垒有助于缓解污染就近转移,而污染密集企业的国有性质未能产生明显的中和效应。以上结论说明中国当前各城市为实现局部短期利益最大而实行的环境规制政策并不利于全局环境治理,应该就环境治理的共同目标达成协同规制的共识。 
AbstractPollution transferring nearby not only destroys the scale effect of pollution control, but also fails to fundamentally avoid the problem of concentrated emissions, will lead to greatly reduced effectiveness of environmental governance. Based on the spatial lag of X model (SLX), this paper firstly matches the data from urban yearbook, the public environmental research center and the industrial enterprise database, and uses the instrumental variable regression (2SLS) to analyze the causal relationship between neighboring environmental regulation and local pollution discharge. This paper finds that there is pollution transferring nearby caused by environmental regulations, and the conclusion is still valid after considering a series of robustness tests and placebo tests. Further discussion reveals that: (1) Nearby transferring effect of pollution caused by environmental regulation became the biggest in 150km, that is, pollution usually transfers to the surrounding cities. (2) With the passage of time, nearby transferring effect of pollution show the more obvious feature of nearby transferring. (3) Environmental regulation not only enhances the industrial scale of cities which absorb pollution, in a worse case, environmental regulation deepens the degree of pollution of the industrial structure. (4) Exit barriers of the polluted areas can help to relieve nearby transferring effect of pollution, but the state-owned nature of the enterprises cannot produce obvious neutralization effect. The conclusion is that the current environmental regulation policies are not conducive to environmental governance because that local government aiming to realize the local short-term interests, the consensus should be reached on the common goals of environmental governance in order to solve the pollution. 
文章编号WP1207 
登载时间2017-07-20 
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