新常态下人口结构、汇率与经济增长率关系研究
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| Title | Research on the Relation Between Population Structure, Exchange Rate and Economic Growth Rate
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| 作者 | 昌忠泽 毛培 |
| Author | Chang ZhongZe and Mao Pei |
| 作者单位 | 中央财经大学财经研究院 |
| Organization | Central University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | zhz_chang@163.com；mao_pei@sohu.com |
| 中文关键词 | “巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应” 人口红利 世代交叠模型 非贸易品需求 |
| Key Words | "Barraza Samuelson effect; Population profit; Over lapping generation models; Demand of non tradable goods |
| 内容提要 | 在新常态背景下，我国经济增速下降、人口结构扭曲、国内供需失衡、外部环境更加复杂等问题十分突出。本文试图从人口结构的角度解释其与汇率变动、经济增长之间的关系，借助“巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应”中的两部门划分的方法,基于戴蒙德“世代交叠模型”进行理论构建，从需求和供给层次分析人口结构对我国实际有效汇率的影响。文章使用协整方法测度了儿童、老人所占比重对我国实际有效汇率指数的影响，研究发现：儿童和老人比重的增加对实际有效汇率具有正向作用，并且老年人口对汇率的影响程度远高于儿童，验证了人口结构、汇率变动和经济增长之间确实存在长期关系。 |
| Abstract | In the context of the new normal, China's economic growth rate down, the population structure is distorted, domestic supply and demand imbalance, the external environment is more complex and other issues are very prominent. This paper tries to explain the relationship between exchange rate fluctuation and economic growth, from the angle of population structure, with the method of "two division of Barraza Samuelson in the" Diamond effect "Over lapping generation models" based on the theory, from the supply and demand analysis of population structure of the real effective exchange rate of China's influence. This paper uses cointegration method to measure the proportion of children and old people on China's real effective exchange rate index, the study found: increasing the proportion of children and old people has a positive effect on the real effective exchange rate, and the impact on the exchange rate of the elderly population is much higher than that of children, prove the existence of a long-term relationship between population structure, exchange rate change and economic growth. |
| 文章编号 | WP1206 |
| 登载时间 | 2017-07-20 |
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