住房市场波动与宏观经济政策的有效性
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| Title | Housing Market Fluctuation and the Effectiveness of Macroeconomic Management
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| 作者 | 黄志刚 许伟 |
| Author | Huang Zhigang and Xu Wei |
| 作者单位 | 中央财经大学金融学院 |
| Organization | Central University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | zghuang@pku.edu.cn；wxu@drc.gov.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 住房市场、经济波动、宏观经济政策 |
| Key Words | housing markets, business cycles, macroeconomic policies |
| 内容提要 | 本文建立了一个多部门随机动态一般均衡模型，探究住房市场波动和宏观经济运行的关系，重点探讨了商品部门投资效率下降背景下不同宏观经济政策的有效性，及政策组合的效果。分析表明，住房市场的杠杆率上升，会放大住房市场波动，引起宏观经济的不稳定。当经济扰动来自商品部门投资效率下降等供给侧冲击，住房市场呈逆周期变化，需求管理可稳定产出，但会助长房价或挤出私人投资。结构性的减税降费措施可有效稳定产出，缓解住房市场波动；宏观审慎管理能有效平抑房价，但会加大产出波动。在难以精准识别减税降费力度时，货币政策与宏观审慎、减税降费的结构性供给政策构成的次优组合可较好兼顾稳增长、控房价和调结构，显著降低福利损失。 |
| Abstract | This paper sets up a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with multi-sector to study the relation between housing markets and business cycles, and to analyze efficiency of combinations of policies under investment shocks. Simulations demonstrate that, when the leverage rate of housing markets increases, housing markets become more volatile, causing unstable macro-economy. Housing markets is countercyclical under supply shocks, and aggregate demand management policies face a tradeoff between stability of output and sector structure. Structural reduction of taxes and fees can keep output and sector structure stable under investment shocks. Macro-prudential policy can diminish volatility of housing markets with scarifying output. When the first best policy is difficult to implement, a second best combination of policies is an active monetary policy with a structural reduction of taxes and fees and a macro-prudential policy to balance three goals: stabilizing economic growth, controlling house prices and balancing economic structure. |
| 文章编号 | WP1204 |
| 登载时间 | 2017-07-04 |
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