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基础设施投资与“一带一路”战略发展潜力模拟评估
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TitleInvestment in Infrastructure and Numerical Simulation Assessment of the Effects of ‘the Belt and Road’ strategy  
作者杨高举 黄先海 陈航宇  
AuthorYang Gaoju, Huang Xianhai and Chen Hangyu  
作者单位浙江大学经济学院 
OrganizationSchool of Economics, Zhejiang University 
作者Emailygaoju@aliyun.com 
中文关键词“一带一路” 基础设施投资 TFP 贸易成本 
Key WordsThe Belt and Road; Infrastructure Investment; TFP; Trade Costs 
内容提要基于基础设施投资对提升TFP和降低贸易成本的影响效应,采用亚洲开发银行的预测数据,本文在GTAP模型中实证模拟了“一带一路”亚洲沿线经济体基础设施建设投资的潜在影响,结果表明“一带一路”推动的基础设施投资对大部分国家(地区)经济增长和福利提示均有不同程度的促进作用,同时也能促进多数区域的对外贸易发展及其贸易条件改善,并在一定程度上强化发达经济体和发展中经济体间既有的分工和贸易格局。此外,中国的产业转型升级也会受益于“一带一路”推动的基础设施投资,即传统产业增速放缓或下滑,高端制造业和服务业增速提升,相应地产业间的要素配置也有类似的变动趋势。 
AbstractBased on the estimated effect of infrastructure investment on TFP enhancing and trade costs reducing, this paper use the data from Asian Development Bank to numerically assess the effects of Asian nations’ infrastructure investment under ‘the Belt and Road’ strategy within GTAP model, the results show that most countries (regions) economic growth and welfare are promoted in varying degrees, as well as foreign trade and trade terms, and the existing division of labor and trade patterns between developed economies and developing countries somehow consolidated. In addition, China’s industrial transformation and upgrading will benefit from the infrastructure investment under ‘the Belt and Road’ strategy, namely the traditional industries slowdown or decline and high-tech manufacturing and service industries speed up, along with the re-allocation of elements among industries. 
文章编号WP1190 
登载时间2017-06-02 
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