论新常态下中国对外经济战略之转型
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| Title | The Transformation of China's Foreign Economic Strategy under the “New Normal”
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| 作者 | 龚刚 马丽 李炳念 徐文舸 |
| Author | Gong Gang, Ma Li, Li Bingnian and Xu Wenge |
| 作者单位 | 云南财经大学 |
| Organization | Yunnan University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | gonggang@vip.163.com；maliwhu123@126.com；libingnian@163.com；xuwenge_nk@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 对外经济战略 新常态 供给决定型经济 新古典增长模型 |
| Key Words | Foreign Economic Strategy, the “New Normal”, Supply-determined Economy, Neoclassical Growth Model |
| 内容提要 | 新常态意味着常态下中国已不再是一个“需求决定型经济”，而是“供给决定型经济”，正因为如此，推动经济增长的主要动力在于供给侧。供给决定性经济不仅是中国供给侧改革的逻辑起点，同时也是中国对外经济战略转型的逻辑起点。在供给决定型经济中，出口和贸易顺差不仅意味着将已经十分紧缺的资源养活他国，同时也抑制了本国的经济增长；进口和贸易逆差则有助于促进本国的经济增长。因此，进入新常态之后，中国的对外贸易战略应适时转向进口和贸易逆差。然而，长期的贸易逆差一般不可持续，除非该国用本国货币购买进口才有可能。于是中国对外贸易战略的转型也要求中国对外货币战略的转型，即中国的对外货币战略应该从以前的弱势货币战略转向以人民币国际化为目标的强势货币战略转型，而以周边国家为目标用人民币大量进口和直接投资是促进人民币周边区域国际化的重要举措，而这也是中国一路一带建设的重要内容。 |
| Abstract | The “new normal” means that Chinese economy is no longer a demand-determined economy, but a supply determined-economy in normal or general situation. Because of that, the main driving force of economic growth lies in the supply side. A supply-determined economy is not only the logical starting point of China's supply-side reform, but also means a necessity for transforming China's foreign economic strategy. In a supply-determined economy, export and trade surplus imply that the country will use its scarce resources to support other countries and therefore it will inhibit the country’s economic growth. On the other hand, import and the trade deficit will help to promote the country's economic growth. Therefore, after entering the new normal, China's strategy of foreign trade should be timely adjusted to promote the import and trade deficit. However, trade deficit in long run is not sustainable, unless the country uses its home currency to buy imports. So the transformation of China's foreign trade strategy also requires the transformation of China's foreign currency strategy, that is, the China's foreign currency strategy should shift from the previous soft currency to the hard currency with the goal of internationalization of the RMB. A large number of imports and direct investment with RMB in peripheral countries is an important measure to promote the internationalization of the RMB in peripheral region. This is an important content of China’s one-belt and one-road strategy. |
| 文章编号 | WP1184 |
| 登载时间 | 2017-04-25 |
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