中国人口年龄结构与人民币实际有效汇率:理论机理与实证检验 阅读全文
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Title | Population Age Structure and RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate: Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Study
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作者 | 黄寿峰 |
Author | Huang Shoufeng |
作者单位 | 厦门大学经济学院财政系 |
Organization | Xiamen University |
作者Email | shoufenghuang@xmu.edu.cn |
中文关键词 | 人口年龄结构 人民币实际有效汇率 需求结构机制 经常项目机制 劳动生产率机制 |
Key Words | Population Age Structure; RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate; Demand Structure Mechanism; Current Account Mechanism; Labor Productivity Mechanism |
内容提要 | 本文通过理论模型和实证检验,分析了中国人口年龄结构对中国省级人民币实际有效汇率的影响。理论模型表明,人口年龄结构会通过“需求结构”、“经常项目”及“劳动生产率”这三种机制影响实际汇率。而后,本文测算了中国省级实际有效汇率,并据此实证检验了中国人口年龄结构对人民币实际有效汇率的影响,实证结果显示:人口年龄结构会显著影响人民币实际有效汇率;在三种作用机制中,“劳动生产率”机制起主导作用,劳动人口占比(人口总抚养比)的上升会通过“劳动生产率”机制导致人民币实际有效汇率显著升值(贬值),而“需求结构”机制及“经常项目”机制均表现不显著。 |
Abstract | This paper examines the effects of population age structure on the provincial RMB real effective exchange rate in China by theoretical model and empirical test. The theoretical model shows that population age structure may affect real exchange rate through “demand structure”, “current account” and “labor productivity” these three kinds of mechanisms. Then, we measure the provincial real effective exchange rate in China, and thus empirically study the impacts of population age structure on RMB real effective exchange rate. The empirical results show that, population age structure affects RMB real effective exchange rate significantly, furthermore, among the three mechanisms, the “labor productivity” mechanism plays the dominant role, specifically, the increasing of the labor population proportion (total population dependency ratio) will significantly appreciate(depreciate) RMB real effective exchange rate via “labor productivity” mechanism, while the “demand structure” mechanism and “current account” mechanism are both not significant. |
文章编号 | WP1182 |
登载时间 | 2017-04-25 |
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