“均值回归”并不可靠——长期增长可持续性的深入分析
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| Title | “Regression to the Mean” is not Reliable——The Persistence of Long-Run Economic Growth Revisited
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| 作者 | 刘培林 贾珅 邹静娴 申广军 |
| Author | Liu Peilin,Jia Shen,Zou Jingxian and Shen Guangjun |
| 作者单位 | 国务院发展研究中心；北京大学国家发展研究院；中央财经大学经济学院 |
| Organization | Development Research Centre of the State Council;Peking University; Central University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | lpl@drc.gov.cn；js@drc.gov.cn；zoujingxian@gmail.com；hnshgj@126.com |
| 中文关键词 | 经济增长 增长可持续性 后发优势 中国经济 |
| Key Words | Economic Growth; Growth Persistence; Advantage of Backwardness; China’s Economy |
| 内容提要 | 本文通过采用更合理的统计算法和更细致的数据分析，重新梳理经济增长的国别经验，发现哈佛大学普利切特和萨默斯提出的经济体长期增速“向均值回归”的假说在经验上并不稳健，不同发展阶段经济体的长期增速分布和增长持续性存在巨大差异，基于全球样本得到的“均值回归”系数预测包括中国在内的后发追赶经济体长期增速，将导致巨大偏误。本文构建的包含技术追赶机制的全球经济增长模型，能比“均值回归”更好地解释二战以来的全球增长经验和中国改革开放以来的经济表现。参照其他经济体的高速增长经验，未来一段时期中国仍有中高速增长的潜力，实现这一增长潜力，关键要及时推动基础性改革、持续提升全要素生产率。 |
| Abstract | In this paper, by using improved statistical methodology and more detailed data, we summarized the cross-country experiences of economic growth and found that the “regression to the mean” framework proposed by Pritchett & Summers (2014) wasn’t robust. The distribution and persistence of growth can vary dramatically among economies at different development stages. Consequently, associated predictions on China and other catching-up economies, by adopting “mean-reversion” framework on global sample, will be seriously biased. Instead, we propose a global growth model incorporating the mechanism of technology-catch up, which performs better at explaining the observed growth patterns for worldwide economies and China after reform and opening period. Lessons from those high-growth economies lead us to believe that China can maintain a medium-to-high growth momentum, as long as it can realize a sustainable TFP growth by promoting the fundamental reforms effectively. |
| 文章编号 | WP1172 |
| 登载时间 | 2017-03-24 |
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