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以“镜像战略”应对贸易争端:一个政治经济学的分析
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TitleHow Can Mirror Strategy Resolve Trade Conflicts: A Political Economy Analysis  
作者鞠建东 马捷 魏冬  
AuthorJu Jiandong, Ma Jie and Wei Dong  
作者单位上海财经大学国际工商管理学院;对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院;New York University 
Organization Shanghai University of Finance and Economics; The University of International Business and Economics; New York University 
作者Emailju.jiandong@gmail.com;pkujiema@gmail.com; 
中文关键词关税 贸易保护主义 镜像战略 政治游说 
Key WordsTariff; Trade Protectionism; Mirror Strategy; Lobbying 
内容提要“镜像战略”是指:一国承诺使该国的进口、出口贸易政策分别与另外一国的进口、出口贸易政策以某种函数形式关联。本文取例于中欧光伏贸易争端,在Grossman and Helpman (1995)的“贸易战”模型中引入“镜像战略”,研究了该策略是否可以有效抑制贸易保护主义以及其政治经济学机制。我们主要研究了一类“使一国进口关税与另外一国进口关税正相关”的“镜像战略”。我们得到的结论如下:第一,在两国贸易政策博弈中,一定条件下,一国承诺使用“镜像战略”可以降低另外一国在均衡中所制定的进口关税水平。第二,导致贸易限制减少的重要原因是:“镜像战略”引发了对方国内进口和出口两个产业的利益集团,在进口贸易政策游说上的政治竞争。第三,“镜像战略”可以提高使用国的社会福利,并可能提高双方的社会福利,造成帕累托改进。 
Abstract“Mirror strategy” is a commitment made by a country to let its trade policy to be a function of the trade policy of another country. This paper studies the effectiveness of “mirror strategy” in inhibiting trade protectionism and its underlying mechanism. Motivated by China-EU trade dispute in photovoltaic industry, we introduce “mirror strategy” into Grossman and Helpman’s (1995) “trade war” model, and mainly focus on the type of “mirror strategy” that makes a country’s import tariff positively correlated with another country’s import tariff. We show that: i) under certain conditions, the use of “mirror strategy” by a country will reduce the equilibrium import tariff chosen by another country; ii) one important driving force of this reduction of trade restrictions is the induced domestic political competition between different interest groups; another driving force is the terms-of-trade effect caused by the use of this strategy; iii) “mirror strategy” will improve the social welfare of the country that uses it, and may also also enhance the welfare of the other country, resulting in Pareto improvement. 
文章编号WP1161 
登载时间2017-02-28 
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