货币调控、实体经济与资本市场的分流效应
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| Title | Currency Regulation and the Liquidity Diversion Mechanism between the Real Economy and Capital Market
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| 作者 | 汪颢 |
| Author | Wang Hao |
| 作者单位 | 华中科技大学经济学院 |
| Organization | School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science & Technology |
| 作者Email | howwang@hust.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 货币流动性 实体经济 资本市场 分流机制 供给调整 |
| Key Words | Currency Liquidity, The Real Economy, Capital Market, Diversion Mechanism, |
| 内容提要 | 引导产业结构调整，升级供给结构是货币政策的重要目标。本文测度了流动性在实体经济和资本市场的分流机制、及其在不同行业和不同所有制间的差异性，以评判货币政策对产业调整的有效性和靶向效应。研究发现，资本市场与实体经济的流动性增速之比约为4:1，而且，流动性在实体经济内不同行业和不同所有制间的配置无显著差异性，资本市场中产能过剩行业吸纳资金的能力反而更强。这表明，货币传导机制和资本市场定价都无法自动识别落后产能。利用货币政策引导产业升级，不但要抑制资本市场的虹吸效应，更要强化货币政策工具在实体经济领域的靶向性。 |
| Abstract | Guiding the adjustment of industrial structure and upgrading the supply structure are the major goals of monetary policy. In order to judge the effectiveness and targeted effect of monetary policy on industrial restructuring, the liquidity diversion mechanism between the real economy and capital market, and the difference that it performs in different industries and ownerships, are all measured in this paper. It turns out that liquidity growth of capital market is four times as much as that in the real economy. Also, the liquidity allocation has no significant difference among different industries and ownerships. Moreover, the industries with overcapacity have stronger ability to absorb funds. So it can be concluded that the monetary transmission mechanism and capital market pricing can not automatically identify the backward production capacity. Therefore, when using monetary policy to guide industrial upgrading, not only the siphon effect of the capital market should be suppressed, but also the policy targeting should be strengthened in the area of the real economy. |
| 文章编号 | WP1147 |
| 登载时间 | 2017-01-10 |
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