中国的产能过剩严重吗?——比较分析与典型事实
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| Title | How Serious Overcapacity is in China?——Comparative Analysis and Stylized Facts
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| 作者 | 张少华 蒋伟杰 |
| Author | Zhang Shaohua and Jiang Weijie |
| 作者单位 | 浙江理工大学经济管理学院；西安交通大学金禾经济研究中心 |
| Organization | Zhejiang Sci-Tech University；Zhejiang Ecological Civilization Research Center; Jinhe Center for Economic Research, Xi'an Jiaotong University |
| 作者Email | ahua1688@126.com;zjtxjiang@gmail.com |
| 中文关键词 | 产能过剩 产能利用率 动态SBM 存货 |
| Key Words | Excess Capacity; Capacity Utilization; Dynamic SBM; Inventory |
| 内容提要 | 企业的生产过程是一个多阶段投入和产出的动态决策过程，传统效率评价方法（非参数前沿面分析方法和随机前沿面方法）只应用初始投入和最终产出计算效率值，而忽视企业生产过程中的跨期经营活动，从而可能错误估计中国的产能过剩程度。为此，本文拓展了Tone and Tsutsui (2010)提出的DSBM模型，采用基于冗余的DSBM模型重新测度了中国省际工业产能利用率。研究表明：（1）传统DEA方法与动态DEA方法测度的产能利用率存在显著差异。静态方法由于忽略企业的动态决策过程，倾向于低估产能利用率、高估产能过剩以及产生产能利用率过度波动的假象。基于动态方法测度的结果表明我国平均产能利用率为60.68%，确实存在严重的产能过剩问题，并具有明显的顺周期特征。（2）基于产权、行业以及规模的动态分析发现，产能过剩问题在各个层面均存在。国有企业产能利用率高于其他所有制企业；重工业产能利用率低于轻工业产能利用率；大规模企业产能利用率低于中小规模企业。（3）东部地区不存在产能过剩问题，而中部、西部以及东北均存在严重的产能过剩问题，这种现象在不同产权、行业以及规模层面均存在，说明根植于不同地区的市场化水平、开放程度以及产权保护力度等因素可能是解释产能过剩地区差异的终极原因。 |
| Abstract | The enterprise's production process is a multi-stage inputs and outputs and dynamic decision-making process, the traditional efficiency evaluation methods applied only to the initial input and output to calculate efficiency, and ignore the production process during the business activities, which may be errors in the estimation of the degree of excess capacity in China. For this purpose, this paper extends the DSBM model proposed by Tone and Tsutsui (2010), and uses the redundant DSBM model to re-measure the industrial capacity utilization of China's provincial industry. The research shows: (1) there is a significant difference between the traditional DEA method and the dynamic DEA method to measure the capacity utilization. The static method tends to underestimate the capacity utilization, overestimate the excess capacity and the excess volatility of the capacity utilization. Based on the dynamic method, the results show that the average capacity utilization is 60.68%, there is a serious problem of excess capacity, and has the obvious characteristics of pro-cyclicality. (2) based on the dynamic analysis of property rights, industry and scale, the problem of excess capacity exists at all levels. The capacity utilization of state owned enterprises is higher than that of other enterprises, the utilization of heavy industry capacity is lower than light industrial capacity utilization, and the utilization of large scale enterprises is lower than that of small and medium scale enterprises. (3) the eastern region does not exist the problem of excess production capacity, while there are serious overcapacity problem in the central and western and northeast region. This phenomenon exists in different property, industry and scale, which shows the market level, the degree of openness and efforts to protect property rights and other factors rooted in different areas is the ultimate cause of regional difference of overcapacity. |
| 文章编号 | WP1145 |
| 登载时间 | 2017-01-03 |
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