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集群商业信用与企业出口——对中国出口扩张奇迹的一种解释
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TitleCluster-based Trade Credit and Firm Export:An Explanation for China’s Export Miracle  
作者马述忠 张洪胜  
AuthorMa Shuzhong and Zhang Hongsheng  
作者单位浙江大学经济学院 
OrganizationZheJiang University 
作者Emailmashuzhong@zju.edu.cn;hongshengzhang@zju.edu.cn 
中文关键词商业信用 集群 企业出口 双重差分 出口决策 
Key WordsTrade Credit; Cluster; Firm Export; DID; Export Decision 
内容提要我国在资本市场高度不发达的情况下取得了巨大出口奇迹。本文尝试从县级集群内部的商业信用视角对此提供一种解释。研究发现,集群商业信用可以显著提高企业出口水平,这主要是通过影响私营企业实现的,对国有企业和外资企业的影响程度较小或不显著,而且主要影响东部地区的企业出口。本文进行了一系列的稳健性分析,都支持上述结果。将集群因素纳入回归方程以消除遗漏变量的影响,同时为了解决集群商业信用内生性可能导致的识别困境,本文根据企业是否变更经营地点构造拟自然实验并采用双重差分方法对上述关系进行重新检验,得到了一致的结论。本文进一步分析了集群商业信用对企业进入决策的动态影响,发现集群商业信用显著提高企业从不出口转向出口的概率。最后,安慰剂检验显示,集群商业信用对加工贸易没有显著影响。本文经验证据表明,集群商业信用不仅影响企业出口水平,而且作用于企业出口决策。这可以解释在中国市场化改革进程中私营企业虽然相对于国有企业和外资企业更难以从正规融资渠道获取资金,但依然实现了出口快速扩张。 
AbstractChina achieved a huge export growth despite an underdeveloped capital market. This paper tries to provide an explanation for this puzzle from the cluster-based trade credit point of view. We find that total trade credit within a cluster can promote significantly the export value of firms in the cluster by affecting private firms’ export mainly with smaller or insignificant effects on state-owned enterprises (SOE) and foreign invested enterprises (FIE). Besides, cluster-based trade credits mainly affect export of firms in the eastern area. A series of robustness checks all support the above results. We further incorporate agglomeration factor of clusters to control omitted variables problems. To address the identification issue arising from potential endogeneity of cluster trade credit, we construct a quasi-experiment by using changes in firm location and estimate the regression utilizing DID method. The results remain robust qualitatively. This paper further analyzes the dynamic effect of cluster-based trade credit on firm export and find that cluster-based trade credit help improve the probability for non-exporters to be exporters. Placebo tests show that cluster-based trade credit has no effect on processing exports. The results in this paper not only stress the importance of cluster-based trade credit for firm export, but also emphasize its critical effect on the entry decision of exporting firms which can explain the fact that private firms in China have achieved a rapid growth despite having almost no access to formal financing compared to SOEs and FIEs since China’s market-oriented reform.  
文章编号WP1143 
登载时间2017-01-03 
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