公共转移支付对再分配及贫困的影响——可计算一般均衡模型与微观模拟结合的分析
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| Title | The Impacts of Public Transfers on Income Distribution and Poverty in China
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| 作者 | 解垩 |
| Author | Xie E |
| 作者单位 | 山东大学经济学院 |
| Organization | School of Economics, Shandong University |
| 作者Email | sdcyxe@sina.com |
| 中文关键词 | 公共转移支付 贫困 收入不平等 可计算一般均衡模型与微观模拟结合 |
| Key Words | Public Transfers; Poverty; Income Inequality; Integrated Computable General Equilibrium and Microsimulation |
| 内容提要 | 本文首先假设增加的公共转移支付有两种筹资方式使财政收支保持平衡，一种筹资选择为增加家庭和企业的直接税，另一种筹资选择为增加间接税，并使用计量估计的微观模拟模型与可计算一般均衡模型相结合的自上而下和自下而上方法，评估公共转移支付增加对收入不平等和贫困的效应。结果显示：如果增加公共转移支付的筹资方式为直接税，GDP可能会随着消费的增加而增加；直接税筹资只有很小的劳动供给减少效应；直接税筹资的不平等指标下降程度比间接税筹资下降程度大；如果增加1倍的公共转移支付的筹资方式为直接税，贫困发生率下降2%，采用间接税筹资方式，贫困发生率下降1%。 |
| Abstract | When doubling public transfers，government balance is held fixed with two different financing options, one of financing options is increase in direct taxes to households and firms, another one is increase in indirect taxes, based on a linked top-down, bottom-up (TD-BU) model which combines an econometrically-estimated microsimulation (MS) model and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this paper analyze the impact of public transfers on income inequality and poverty in China. The results show that there is an increase in consumption and minor reduction in labor supply for option of direct taxes. Option of direct tax gives a higher reduction in income inequality than option of indirect tax. Doubling social assistance transfers leads to a 2 percentage point reduction in poverty if we use option of direct taxes and 1 percentage point reduction if we use option of indirect tax. |
| 文章编号 | WP1140 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-12-23 |
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