“债务-通缩”风险与货币政策财政政策协调
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| Title | “Debt-Deflation” Risk and Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions
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| 作者 | 陈小亮 马啸 |
| Author | Chen Xiaoliang and Ma Xiao |
| 作者单位 | 中国社会科学院经济研究所；美国加州大学圣地亚哥分校经济系 |
| Organization | Institute of Economics, CASS; Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego |
| 作者Email | chenxiaoliang2200@126.com；martinmx87@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 债务-通缩 货币政策 财政政策 政策协调 DSGE模型 |
| Key Words | Debt-deflation; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Policy Interaction; DSGE Model |
| 内容提要 | 在高债务和通缩并存的背景下，中国很有必要采取措施应对“债务-通缩”风险。美国和日本的经验表明，单独使用货币政策或财政政策（单一宽松）应对“债务-通缩”所需的政策力度较大，很容易陷入政策不可持续的困境。本文通过构建含有高债务和通缩特征的DSGE模型，并对货币政策和财政政策进行“中国化”修正，研究发现：货币政策与财政政策协调（双宽松）可以为财政政策创造空间、为货币政策节省空间，增强政策可持续性，从而提高中国应对“债务-通缩”的能力。一方面，货币政策的“再通胀”效应有助于减轻政府实际债务负担和融资成本，为财政政策创造新空间。另一方面，积极财政政策同样能产生一定的“再通胀”效应，这会减轻货币政策为实现“再通胀”而需要宽松的力度，从而为货币政策节省空间。有鉴于此，中国应该加强财政货币政策协调以避免经济陷入“债务-通缩”陷阱。 |
| Abstract | Confronted with the coexistence of heavy debt and deflation in economy, China shall take action to safeguard “debt-deflation” risk. Experience from US and Japan reveals that when solely used to stabilize aggregate demand during the period of “debt-deflation” cycles, fiscal or monetary policy has to be intense and could easily become unsustainable. By constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model involving novel features of heavy debt and deflation as well as the execution of fiscal and monetary policy that conforms to reality in China, this paper shows that monetary-fiscal interactions can ameliorate the sustainability of fiscal and monetary policy and improve the government’s ability to resolve “debt-deflation” cycles by creating new room for fiscal policy and reducing required intensity of monetary policy. On one hand, the “reflation” effect of monetary policy can cut down real debt and financing costs of the government, thus allowing for room of fiscal expansion. On the other hand, active fiscal policy will also exert the effect of “reflation” which in turn lower the magnitude of monetary policy needed to accomplish adequate “reflation”. Therefore, it is advisable for Chinese government to strengthen monetary-fiscal policy interactions to prevent the economy from being stuck in “debt-deflation” cycles. |
| 文章编号 | WP1124 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-10-18 |
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