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人民币汇率变动会影响中国制造业的投资吗?
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TitleWill RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation Affect Investment of China’s Manufacturing Industries?  
作者王晋斌 倪颖  
AuthorWang Jinbin and Ni Ying  
作者单位中国人民大学 
OrganizationSchool of Economics, Renmin University of China 
作者Emailwjinbin@ruc.edu.cn;cindanyy@outlook.com 
中文关键词人民币汇率 制造业 固定资产投资 
Key WordsRMB Exchange Rate; Manufacturing Industries; Investment in Fixed Asset  
内容提要本文从经典的三大渠道实证了人民币汇率变动与国内分行业制造业投资之间的关系。实证表明,人民币贬值会通过需求渠道增加中国制造业的固定投资;而汇率变动带来的可变投入对投资的影响总效应为正,其原因可能是中国制造业产出的需求价格弹性较高,替代效应的作用超过了产出效应,从而使得人民币贬值导致的可变投入价格上升反而增加了国内投资;而资本成本增加会导致投资的减少,但其影响具有一定的滞后效应。因此,人民币汇率变动是调节国内制造业投资的有效政策工具。而对不同行业投资对汇率变动敏感性的2大命题的实证结果尽管符合理论逻辑的推演,但并未通过显著性检验。 
AbstractThis article does an empirical research on the relationship between RMB exchange rate fluctuation and investment of China’s manufacturing industries, relying on the classic three channels. Our result shows that the depreciation of RMB will increase China’s manufacturing industries’ investment in fixed assets through the demand channel. Exchange rate fluctuation could also affect investment through change of variable inputs. The proper reason for this particular phenomenon could be that the price elasticity of demand of China’s manufacturing output is too high, in which case the role of the substitution effect outweighs the output effect. Therefore, the increase of variable input prices due to RMB depreciation in the other way improves domestic investment. The increase of capital cost caused by RMB depreciation will decrease investment, however, its impact has a lagged effect. Our conclusion suggests that the change of RMB exchange rate is an effective policy tool to regulate domestic manufacturing investment. The empirical result on our two propositions concerning the sensibility of different manufacturing industries’ investment to exchange rate fluctuation is though in line with the theory of logical deduction, it doesn’t pass the significance test.  
文章编号WP1121 
登载时间2016-10-13 
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