理解中国的M2/GDP：金融创新的视角
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| Title | Understanding China’s M2/GDP: Based on the Perspective of Financial Innovation in Bank System
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| 作者 | 徐朝阳 洪朝伟 李莉 |
| Author | Xu Chaoyang,Hong Chaowei and Li Li |
| 作者单位 | 对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 |
| Organization | University of International Business and Economics |
| 作者Email | xuvenite@gmail.com |
| 中文关键词 | 货币需求；M2/GDP；金融创新；中国货币之谜 |
| Key Words | The Money Demand; M2/GDP; Financial Innovation; Chinese Money Puzzle |
| 内容提要 | M2/GDP比值背后反映的是货币需求。大量研究表明，银行体系金融创新会有效抑制货币需求，因而金融创新是影响M2/GDP的关键因素。本文构建M3/M2指标衡量我国银行体系金融创新程度，并利用“从特殊到一般”的动态建模方法，研究了金融创新对我国货币需求的影响。实证结果表明，M3/M2无论长期还是短期对货币需求的抑制作用都是显著的，若我国M3/M2达到美国2005年的水平，那么我国的货币需求相对现有水平将降低30%；同时，考虑金融创新因素以后，我国直接融资比例提升对货币需求的抑制作用并不显著。因此，我国货币需求旺盛从而M2/GDP持续攀升的现象，银行体系金融创新发展相对滞后才是关键原因，而非资本市场不够发达或者直接融资比重不够高。 |
| Abstract | M2/GDP reflects the money demand. A lot of research has indicated that financial innovation in bank system could play a critical role in restraining the money demand and slowing down the growth of M2/GDP. This research constructs M3/M2 to measure the degree of financial innovation in bank system in China and then investigates its effect on China’s money demand by using the “general to specific” methodology. Empirical test shows that there is a significant effect of M3/M2 in restraining the money demand both in the long and short term. If China’s current M3/M2 reached the level of that of U.S. in 2005, then the amount of the money demand would have decreased by 30%. Furthermore, after considering the role of financial innovation, we find that a higher proportion of direct financing have no significant effect on restraining the money demand. Therefore, the rapid increasing M2/GDP in China could be explained by the slowing process of financial innovation in bank system, rather than the lower proportion of direct financing. |
| 文章编号 | WP1096 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-08-14 |
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