财政分权、地区间竞争与中国经济波动——多级政府框架下的动态一般均衡分析
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| Title | Fiscal Decentralization, Regional Fiscal Competition and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in China
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| 作者 | 朱军 许志伟 |
| Author | Zhu Jun and Xu Zhiwei |
| 作者单位 | 南京财经大学财政与税务学院；上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院 |
| Organization | Nanjing University of Finance and Economics；Shanghai Jiao Tong University |
| 作者Email | 247937882@qq.com；xuzhiwei@sjtu.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 多级政府 财政分权 竞争性财政 财政政策效应 |
| Key Words | Multi-layer Government; Fiscal Decentralization; Regional Fiscal Competition; Fiscal Policy Evaluation |
| 内容提要 | 中央与地方政府在中国转型经济中扮演了关键角色，而多级政府结构往往为传统的财政政策文献所忽略。本文将中央与地方两级政府结构引入主流的动态一般均衡模型中，考察财政分权下地方性财政政策对中国宏观经济的动态影响。基于中央与地方两级财政数据，本文对模型进行校准，数值分析显示：（1）具有财政分权的多级政府基准模型可以解释约56%的总产出波动，50%的投资波动以及30%的消费波动；（2）地方性公共投资对本地经济具有促进作用，同时通过地区间贸易对其他地区产生“正的”溢出效应；且该溢出效应会随着地区间财政竞争程度的加深而显著加强，因此财政竞争为地方性投资政策提供了重要的传导机制；（3）反事实分析表明，深度财政分权会在短期内加强地方财政政策效应而削弱中央政策的宏观影响，同时又在长期提高整个经济总产出与社会福利水平。本文为定量研究我国经济转型期的财政政策动态效应提供了一个新的视角。 |
| Abstract | The central and local governments play crucial roles in the transition process of Chinese economy. However, the multi-layer structure of Chinese government is rarely discussed in literature. In this paper, we incorporate the central-local government structure into an otherwise standard dynamic general equilibrium model. We aim to quantitatively document the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policies under the fiscal decentralization. The model is then calibrated based on the central and local level of fiscal policy data. The quantitative results show that: (i) the model with multi-layer government structure and fiscal decentralization performs reasonably well in explaining Chinese business cycles; (ii) the local public investment has a positive effect on the home region, while deliverers positive spillover effects to other regions through the between-region trade; (iii) the local public consumption has insignificant macroeconomic impact, which is consistent with those findings in the literature. In the counter-factual analysis, we find that the deep fiscal decentralization would (a) amplify the short-run effect of local fiscal policies, while dampen the macroeconomic effects of the central fiscal policies; (b) raise the aggregate output and improve the social welfare. |
| 文章编号 | WP1088 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-08-02 |
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