中国经济的弱供给与经济新常态的数量描述
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| Title | The weak supply and quantitative characteristics of China’s economic growth
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| 作者 | 王少平 杨洋 |
| Author | Wang Shaoping and Yang Yang |
| 作者单位 | 华中科技大学经济学院 |
| Organization | Huazhong University of Science and Technology |
| 作者Email | wangspi@sina.com；yangyanghnwg@sina.com。 |
| 中文关键词 | 长期趋势 减速换挡 协整 供给改革 |
| Key Words | Long-term trend; Economic slowdown; Cointegration; Supply-side reform |
| 内容提要 | 本文基于我国经济的三期叠加而构建GDP等宏观经济变量的协整系统，基于此分解GDP的长期趋势和周期，根据长期趋势的演变而推断经济新常态的数量特征。由此产生的主要结论为：GDP长期趋势呈现出结构性下移，其平均增幅从2001年至2009年的9.88%，下降到2010年至2014年的7.85%，这一结果不仅为加强供给侧改革提供理论与现实的证据，也说明了经济减速换挡的必要性；长期趋势的年度增长率已经从2010年的9.44%急剧下降到2014年的7.6%；长期趋势的平均增幅及年度增长率的持续下降都表明，我国宏观经济从2010年开始呈现弱供给特征，并且从2013年开始演变为弱供给和弱需求并存；基于长期趋势的结构性下移，本文推断长期趋势和GDP增速的取值范围，基于此检验我国GDP增速服从截尾正态分布，据此计算GDP增速具有91.5%的概率在6%—7.5%的区间取值。这一结论意味着，我国经济增长速度正在从10%左右减速至6%—7.5%之间。 |
| Abstract | This paper, based on “The Three Period Superimposed” and the cointegration among the GDP, consumption, investment and net export in China, decomposes Chinese GDP into long-term trend and cycle components. According to the evolution of long-term trend and truncated normal distribution, this paper makes inference on the quantitative characteristics of Chinese economy's “new normal”. The main results are the following. The structure of long-term trend of Chinese GDP is shifting down. Its average growth rate reduced from 9.88% in 2001-2009 to 7.85% in 2010-2014. This result not only provides the theoretical and empirical evidence for supply-side reform, but also shows the necessity of China's economic slowdown. Specifically from 2010 to 2014, the annual growth rate of the trend declined from 9.44% to 7.6%, which implies that the weak supply scenario is formed since 2010. Especially, since 2013, weak supply scenario had to be combined with weak demand. This paper concludes that under “new normal”, the annual growth rate of GDP is within the range 6%-7.5% with the biggest probability 91.5%, which implies that the growth rate of GDP is declining from 10% to 6%-7.5%. |
| 文章编号 | WP1078 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-07-15 |
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