产业结构升级、碳排放密度和能源强度降低与产业体系低碳化发展
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| Title | Upgrading of industrial structure, Reduction of carbon emission density and energy intensity, and Low carbon development o
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| 作者 | 张伟 朱启贵 高辉 |
| Author | Zhang Wei , Zhu QiGui and Gao Hui |
| 作者单位 | 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院;上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院;成都理工大学商学院 |
| Organization | NanJing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics; Antai School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University;ChenDu University of Technology |
| 作者Email | wzha1968@126.com; |
| 中文关键词 | 产业体系低碳化 碳排放强度 碳排放密度 能源消费强度 |
| Key Words | Carbonization of industrial system; Carbon emission intensity; Carbon emission density; Energy consumption intensity |
| 内容提要 | 本文借助kaya恒等式对产业体系的碳排放量进行因素分解，通过生产函数模型化产业结构升级，分析生产技术、资本和劳动力等生产要素升级对产业体系低碳化发展的影响，以此为基础构建产业体系碳排放模型，对我国29个省区产业体系及其三次产业1995-2012年期间的碳排放强度、碳排放密度和能源消费强度的进行测度，并对影响产业体系碳排放强度、碳排放密度和能源消费强度及它们的变化率的因素进行计量分析。研究发现，在长期，我国产业体系低碳化发展是由能源结构变化所驱动，属于能源结构变化型；产业能源结构高碳化，大量使用高碳排放的煤炭致使产业体系碳排放密度上升；由于产出占比和能源消费占比较大，我国产业体系能源消费强度，即能源使用效率主要受Ⅱ次产业的影响。在短期，能源结构变化依然左右我国产业体系低碳化；产业能源消费占比决定我国产业体系碳排放密度；Ⅱ次产业能源消费技术和产出占比决定我国产业体系能源消费强度。 |
| Abstract | By means of the kaya identity, this paper has done the factor decomposition of carbon emission in industrial system, and modeled the upgrading of industrial structure by the production function, which analyzed the impact of the upgrading of production factors on the low-carbon development of industrial system, such as production technology, capital and labor force. Based on these, this paper has constructed the carbon emission model of industrial system, and measured carbon emission intensity、carbon emission density and energy consumption intensity of industrial systems of China's 29 provinces during 1995-2012, and econometrically analyzed the factors which influenced carbon emission intensity、carbon emission density、energy consumption intensity of three industries in industrial systems and their change rates. The research found, in the long term, low-carbon development of China's industrial system was driven by the energy structure changes, which belonged to the type of energy structure change; energy structure of high carbon, the use of a large number of high carbon coal increased carbon emission density of industrial system; because of higher output proportion and energy consumption proportion of the industry II, the energy intensity of China's industrial system, that is, the efficiency of energy use is mainly affected by the industry II. In short, the energy structure change dominated low carbonization of China's industrial system; proportion of industrial energy consumption accounted for carbon emission density of industrial system in China; energy consumption technology and output proportion of the industry II determined energy consumption intensity of China's industrial system. |
| 文章编号 | WP1073 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-07-05 |
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