开发时滞、市场不确定性与城市蔓延
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| Title | Development Lag, Market Uncertainty and Urban Sprawl
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| 作者 | 刘修岩 李松林 秦蒙 |
| Author | Liu Xiuyan,Li Songlin and Qin Meng |
| 作者单位 | 东南大学经济管理学院 |
| Organization | Southeast University |
| 作者Email | lxiuyan320@seu.edu.cn；lslseu@163.com；qinmeng_student@126.com |
| 中文关键词 | 不确定性 开发时滞 城市蔓延 灯光数据 |
| Key Words | Uncertainty; Development Lag; Urban Sprawl; Night-time Light Data |
| 内容提要 | 城市缘何蔓延式发展？城市内部为什么会出现“蛙跳式”蔓延？本文抓住土地开发受市场需求影响以及开发存在时滞这两大现实特征，从市场不确定性对土地开发行为的影响入手，基于经典的动态单中心城市模型框架，构建了解释中国城市土地快速扩张和“蛙跳式”蔓延的理论模型。研究发现，城市的开发密度受到开发时滞和不确定性的交互影响，当存在较长的开发时滞时，市场不确定性与城市蔓延正相关。而且，一旦考虑内外部开发比例，市场不确定性的增加会导致“蛙跳式”蔓延。进而利用DSMP/OLS夜间灯光数据和Landscan全球人口动态分布数据，构建了全新的城市蔓延指数与城市边界人口密度指数，实证检验了市场不确定性对中国城市蔓延的影响。结果证实，市场不确定性增加的确提高了中国城市的蔓延水平。这意味着，由经济波动带来的市场不确性亦是中国城市空间结构塑造的关键诱因。因此，政府对城市蔓延的治理与管控应充分考虑经济波动可能带来的影响。 |
| Abstract | Why do cities sprawl？Why is there leapfrog in the interior city? This paper focuses on the characteristic fact that land development is affected by market demand and development lag, and start from the impact of market uncertainty。Based on classical dynamic mono-centric city model, our research constructs a theoretical model which could explain the fast expansion of urban land use as well as “leapfrog sprawl”. We find that urban development density is affected by development lag, market uncertainty, and also their crossing effect. Market uncertainty has positive relationships with urban sprawl when there is a long lag. Furthermore, once taking the development ratio of interior and exterior into consideration, the improvement of uncertainty can give rise to “leapfrog sprawl”. The empirical analysis makes use of DMSP night-time light data and Landscan population data, and devises a new method to calculate urban sprawl and population density of city periphery. We tests how market uncertainty affects urban sprawl in China, the results suggest that higher degree of uncertainty does improve the urban sprawl index, which means that market uncertainty derived from economic fluctuation is also a critical cause of the form of urban spatial structure in China, so, government should take full allowance of economic fluctuation in tackling and control urban sprawl. |
| 文章编号 | WP1065 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-05-31 |
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