经济发展进程与基础设施投资结构变迁：基于经济增长和创新演变的视角
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| Title | Economic Development Process and Infrastructure Investment Structure Changes
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| 作者 | 童健 武康平 |
| Author | Tong Jian, Wu Kangping |
| 作者单位 | 清华大学经济管理学院 |
| Organization | School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University |
| 作者Email | tongj.13@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn， wukp@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 基础设施投资结构 经济增长 自主创新 模仿创新 经济发展进程 |
| Key Words | Infrastructure Investment Structure; Economic Growth; Independent Innovation; Imitative Innovation; Economic Development Process |
| 内容提要 | 本文研究了经济发展不同阶段下基础设施投资结构与经济增长和自主创新间的动态关系。理论研究表明，在经济增长水平较低时，一般性基础设施投资比重的上升更有利于经济增长，但对自主创新演变影响较弱；随着经济增长水平的提高，科技型基础设施投资比重的上升对经济增长促进作用更强，且加速了自主创新演变。同时，基础设施投资结构变迁时机选择显著影响着经济增长和创新演变，过早或过晚地实施基础设施投资结构变迁会抑制经济增长潜力。实证结果显示，1998—2005年间一般性基础设施投资的经济刺激效应更强，但2006—2013年间科技型基础设施投资更能刺激经济增长。从创新演变视角来看，科技型基础设施投资的创新激励效应始终强于一般性基础设施投资。因此，政府在制定基础设施投资结构变迁政策时需同时兼顾自主创新目标和经济增长目标，根据两类基础设施投资边际效应的相对大小恰当地实施基础设施投资结构变迁，以最大限度地实现经济增长潜力。 |
| Abstract | The paper studies the dynamic relationship between the infrastructure investment structure and economic growth, and that between the infrastructure investment structure and independent innovation under different process of economy development. The theoretical analysis shows that in the low level of economic growth, the increased proportion of general infrastructure investment is conductive to the economic growth, while it has a weak impact on the evolution of independent innovation. With the increasing level of economic growth, the increased proportion of tech-oriented infrastructure investment plays a great role in promoting the economic growth, and accelerates the evolution of independent innovation. Meanwhile, the timing for the changing within the infrastructure investment structure affects the economic growth and the evolution of independent innovation significantly. The potential for economic growth will be inhibited if the change within the structure is too early or too late. The empirical results present that the general infrastructure investment had a stronger impact on the economic growth from 1998 to 2005, while the tech-oriented infrastructure investment had a stronger effect on the economic growth from 2006 to 2013. In the perspective of the evolution of independent innovation, the tech-oriented infrastructure investment always had a stronger impact than the general infrastructure investment. Therefore, the government should take both the goals of independent innovation and economic growth into consideration while formulating the policy for the change within infrastructure investment structure, and implement the policy properly based on the relative size of the marginal effects of the two types of infrastructure investment, in order to maximize the potential for economic growth. |
| 文章编号 | WP1054 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-04-26 |
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