生育政策、人口结构优化与经济增长——基于中国与OECD国家间的比较分析
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| Title | Fertility Policy and Population Structure Optimization, Economic Growth
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| 作者 | 王维国 刘丰 |
| Author | Wang Weiguo and Liu Feng |
| 作者单位 | 东北财经大学经济学院 |
| Organization | School of Economics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | wwguodufe@163.com；dcsjliufeng@hotmail.com |
| 中文关键词 | 生育政策 人口结构优化 经济增长 交叠世代模型 |
| Key Words | Fertility Policy ; Population Structure Optimization ; Economic Growth; Overlapping Generation Models; |
| 内容提要 | 本文将生育率、出生婴儿死亡率与预期寿命年限引入交叠世代模型，从三个维度来探讨人口结构变动对经济增长的作用机制及生育政策调整的经济效应。理论模型分析表明生育率、出生婴儿死亡率与预期寿命年限对经济增长的影响具有不确定性。实证研究结果表明生育率的下降和预期寿命年限的延长对经济增长产生负面效应，出生婴儿死亡率的下降对经济增长产生正向效应，但它们对经济增长的综合影响在各国间存在差异。OECD国家的人口结构变动阻碍了经济的增长，年均贡献-0.04%，尤其是日本，年均贡献-0.14%，主要源于人口结构的老化，而中国的人口结构变动在过去的几十年里对经济增长年均贡献0.02%，主要得益于“第一次人口红利”的释放。总和生育率提高的生育政策分析结果表明总和生育率每提高0.1个点，对人均GDP年均增长率贡献0.08%左右，但生育政策要与财政性教育支出政策相配套实施。 |
| Abstract | This paper studies the effects of population structure change on economic growth, bringing fertility rate, baby mortality rate and life expectancyinto overlapping generation model. The model shows thatfertility rate, mortality rate and life expectancy have uncertain influence on economic growth. The empirical result shows that the decreasing of fertility and increasing of life expectancy have negative on economic growth, while low mortality rate has positive effect on it. However, their combined effect on economic varies from country to country. The changing of population structure of OECD countries hinder the economic growth, contributing to -0.04% annual average, especially Japan (-0.14%). Population aging is the main reason. The changing of population structure of China plays a positive effect on economic growth, contributing to 0.02% annual average, which is the result of the first demographic dividend. The analysis of fertility policy adjustment policy implies that the increasing 0.1 unit of total fertility rate can contribute to about 0.08% of GDP per capital. Besides, the fertility policy adjustment policy should combines with the fiscal educational expenditure policy. |
| 文章编号 | WP1048 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-04-08 |
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