出口产品结构与国内需求结构的背离：成因及影响
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| Title | Structure Deviation of Export and Domestic Demand: Causes and Consequences
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| 作者 | 易先忠 包群 侯俊 张亚斌 |
| Author | Yi Xianzhong, Bao Qun, Jun Hou and Zhang Yabin |
| 作者单位 | 南京审计大学；南开大学经济学院；牛津大学国际发展系；湖南大学 |
| Organization | Nanjing Audit University; Nankai University; Oxford University; Hunan University |
| 作者Email | yixianzhong007@163.com；baoqun@yeah.net；jun.hou@qeh.ox.ac.uk；yabinzhang@hnu.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 国内需求 结构背离 制度环境 出口升级 国家规模 |
| Key Words | Domestic Demand; Structural Deviation; Institutional Environment; Export Upgrading; Country Size |
| 内容提要 | 文章从国际经验视角，探究中国出口贸易脱离国内需求及产业结构这一“中国特色现象”背后的一般性规律。采用联合国工业发展组织ISIC四分位数据，测算了51个国家出口产品结构与国内需求结构的背离度。基于典型经验事实，构建了“制度环境——结构背离——出口升级”的分析框架，阐释了制度环境影响结构背离进而影响出口升级的机理。利用跨国面板数据对理论假说进行检验，结果表明：除了要素禀赋和产品内分工等因素外，制度环境也是决定结构背离的重要维度；结构背离对小国出口升级没有显著影响，但对大国出口升级却有显著的抑制效应。这意味着，即便依托要素禀赋比较优势和深度依赖产品内分工的外贸发展模式使结构背离成为常态，但相对小国而言，大国更有必要通过完善制度环境降低结构背离程度，形成依托国内大市场的“内需驱动型”外贸发展模式。 |
| Abstract | From the perspective of international experience, this paper try to explore the general rule behind the Chinese characteristic fact that China's export structure deviated domestic demand and industrial structure. We calculate the structural deviation degree of 51 economies based on the United Nations Industrial Development Organization ISIC 4-digit data. Based on the typical empirical facts, we construct an analysis framework of institutional environment—structural deviation—export upgrading, which explains the mechanism of institutional environment affects export upgrading through structural deviation. Theoretical hypothesis are tested based on the panel data cross counties, the results show that, in addition to factor endowment and intra-product specialization, institutional environment is another important determining dimension of structural deviation. Structural deviation exerts a significant negative effect on export upgrading in large economies, but not in small economies. This means that even if structural deviation is a normal phenomenon under the trade mode based on the comparative advantage and intra-product specialization, it is more important for large countries, comparing with small ones, to reduce the degree of structural deviation by improving institutional environment in order to form the trade model driven by domestic demand. |
| 文章编号 | WP1045 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-04-05 |
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