外资政策与外商直接投资——一个准自然实验的证据
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| Title | Government Policy and Foreign Direct Investment——A Quasi-natural Experiment Evidence
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| 作者 | 李志远 方枕宇 |
| Author | 上海财经大学 |
| 作者单位 | Li Zhiyuan and Fang Zhenyu |
| Organization | zhyli@mail.shufe.edu.cn；shfang_001@hotmail.com |
| 作者Email | Shanghai University of Finance and Economics |
| 中文关键词 | 外资政策 外商直接投资 |
| Key Words | Government Policy; Foreign Direct Investment |
| 内容提要 | 本文利用我国自1995年起开始颁行的《外商投资产业指导目录》中的政策变化来研究政府针对外资的政策变化如何影响外商直接投资。使用1998年至2006年的中国工业企业数据库，我们利用外商投资政策在2002年发生的准自然实验，通过双重差分的方法估计政府外资政策变化对外商直接投资的影响。回归发现，受政策影响的行业在2002年之后的外商投资企业数目年均增长率比2002年之前提升了约25%。其中，约有13.5%-18.1%的增长率提升来源于政府针对外商直接投资的政策变化。这一发现在我国当前经济增速下降的背景下具有重大的现实意义。进一步的针对外商直接投资放开本国的市场，将可能有效缓解我国面对的经济增速下降困境。 |
| Abstract | This paper studies the impacts of the government policy towards foreign investment on foreign direct investment (FDI) using policy changes in the government issued "Catalogues for the Guidance of Foreign Investment Industries". We take advantage of a quasi-natural experiment in the foreign investment policy in 2002 and study how such policy changes affected FDIs in manufacturing sectors in China. We find that in the overall 25 percentage points increase in the growth rate of FDI after 2002, compared with the rate before that year, 13.5 to 18.1 percentage points increase is due to the government policy change from “allowing” to “encouraging”. Such a finding is of great importance since it implies that further promoting government policy toward foreign investment might help mitigate the declining trend of China’s economy we face in recent years. |
| 文章编号 | WP1034 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-03-11 |
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