人口老龄化与技术进步
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| Title | Population Aging and Technological Progress
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| 作者 | 倪宣明 武康平 |
| Author | Ni Xuanming and Wu Kangping |
| 作者单位 | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院应用数学所；清华大学经济管理学院经济系 |
| Organization | Chinese Academy of Social Sciences，CASS; Tsinghua University |
| 作者Email | nixm.11@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn；wukp@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 人口老龄化 技术进步 老龄化率 内生增长 |
| Key Words | Population Aging; Technological Progress; Aging Rate; Endogenous Growth |
| 内容提要 | 本文放宽新古典生产函数中“总人口增长率与劳动人口增长率相等”这一假设，引进人口结构变动，将二者之差定义为老龄化率。若技术进步率外生，经济系统存在鞍型的平衡增长路径，人均产出增长率取决于技术进步率与老龄化率之差，技术进步除提高生活水平外，还需用来负担经济系统中出现的老年人。要使人均效用水平最高，最优的老龄化率应该为0，即总人口增长率与劳动人口增长率相一致，这是由于老年人不对生产发挥作用，仅仅耗费经济系统中既有资源，只有负效应。技术进步率内生化后，新增加的人口既可以提高技术进步率，又会形成老龄化率，因此老龄化率对经济运行的影响取决于两种效应之差。在一定的假设条件下，存在有助于经济系统运行的最优老龄化率。在应对人口老龄化的政策设计上，政府除了通过支出对家庭效用函数及企业生产函数发挥积极作用外，还应引导社会力量参与老龄产业和老龄服务业，吸引外来移民来增加劳动人口，同时谨慎使用二胎政策及延迟退休政策。从长期看，充分发掘人力资本，使新增人口的创造力得到最大程度的发挥，是解决人口老龄化的根本出路。 |
| Abstract | This paper loosens the assumption that the total population growth rate is equal to the growth rate of working population in neoclassical production function, then the population structure is changing. We define the difference as the aging rate. If technical progress rate is exogenous, there would be saddle-shape balanced growth path in the economic system, and the output growth rate per capita depends on the difference between the technical progress rate and the aging rate. Besides improving the living standard, the technical progress need support the aged in the economy. To maximize the utility level per capita, the optimal aging rate should be zero for the aged do not benefit the production. In the framework of endogenous growth theory, the newly-born population will not only improve the technology, but also ehance the aging rate. The impact of the aging rate then depends on the difference of these two sides. Under strict conditions, there would be the optimal aging rate. Besides her positive role in the functions of the utility and the production, the government may guide the social strength to participate in the aging industry, and attract immigrants to increase the working population to cope with the aging population. However, the two children policy and delay retirement policy should be used cautiously. To solving the problem fundamentally, we should fully excavate the human capital and get the most of the newly-born population. |
| 文章编号 | WP1032 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-03-04 |
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