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死亡风险、家庭经济脆弱性与风险规避—基于家庭微观数据的实证分析
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TitleMotality Shock,Household financial Fragile and Risk Aversion  
作者张冀 祝伟 王亚柯  
AuthorZhang ji,Zhu Wei and Wang Yake  
作者单位对外经济贸易大学保险学院 
OrganizationUniversity of international Business and Economics 
作者Emailzhangji1030@ 126.com 
中文关键词死亡风险;家庭消费与福利;家庭经济脆弱性;风险规避 
Key Words mortality risk; household consumption and welfare; household economic vulnerability; Risk aversion 
内容提要我国居民家庭生命周期的消费随着收入的变动而变动,并不具有平滑性,从而死亡风险的冲击可能导致居民家庭消费水平的剧烈波动,已有的基于生命周期理论的家庭经济脆弱性分析框架无法有效捕捉这一波动效应。本文从家庭福利的视角基于期望效用理论构建新的家庭经济脆弱性分析框架,研究死亡风险对家庭经济脆弱性的总体影响和异质性影响,将包含跨期效应的家庭户主及其配偶的死亡风险对其家庭消费水平冲击的后果分解为消费水平平均下降的影响和消费水平波动的影响,在此基础上,为如何规避死亡风险的决策提供实证证据。研究结果表明:我国城市居民家庭普遍存在死亡风险导致的经济脆弱性且比较严重,死亡风险造成的家庭经济脆弱性程度在20%以上的家庭占全部样本家庭的65%以上;并且死亡风险冲击导致的家庭消费波动性显著地高于家庭消费水平下降对于家庭福利的影响,这意味着我国居民采用保险来规避死亡风险的影响要比储蓄更有效。然而,当前城市居民家庭总体寿险持有水平很不充分,总体上对我国城市居民家庭经济脆弱性的降低作用还较小。但从寿险持有的结构看,家庭持有的寿险保障与面临的经济脆弱性的匹配性较好。另外,寿险保障降低家庭经济脆弱性的有效程度具有异质性:对3人家庭和35-44岁家庭作用最有效,对于女性户主家庭寿险保障作用较低。本文的政策含义在于:引入脆弱性分析框架不仅能够有效度量死亡风险对居民家庭消费和福利的影响,还可以直接回答居民家庭应如何选择死亡风险规避方式,降低家庭经济脆弱性,这与我国政府将保险业提升至战略层面的思路相吻合。 
AbstractBased on the expected utility theory, this paper constructs a new household economic vulnerability analysis framework to study the impact of mortality risk on the residents' consumption and welfare.We separate the effect of mortality risk on the residents' consumption into two parts: decline level and fluctuations level according to the heads’ and spouses' cross term effects,which can provide the basis for the family to take a reasonable way to avoid mortality risk. Our results show that: The household economic vulnerability is common and serious in the urban residents in China. The families whose economic vulnerability caused by the death is above 20% accounted for more than 65% of the families of all the sample households . The effect of volatility of household consumption level was significantly higher than that of consumption decline level,which means using insurance to avoid the risk of death is more effective than saving. At present, the overall life insurance that urban residents held is not sufficient, but life insurance protection can match well with and the household economic vulnerability.In addition, the effective degree of life insurance reducing the economic vulnerability is heterogeneous:the most effective for the family of 3 and 35-44 years old but not good for female head. It is proved that the framework of this paper can effectively measure the impact of mortality risk on household consumption and welfare, but also can directly answer how to choose risk aversion mode and provide reference for policy making. 
文章编号WP1022 
登载时间2016-02-02 
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