中国基础设施存量的再测算
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| Title | Revised Estimation of China’s Infrastructure Capital Stock
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| 作者 | 胡李鹏 樊纲 徐建国 |
| Author | Hu Lipeng, Fan Gang and Xu Jianguo |
| 作者单位 | 北京大学 |
| Organization | Peking University |
| 作者Email | lipenghu@gmail.com；fangang@neri.org.cn；jgxu@nsd.pku.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 基础设施投资 基础设施存量 基础设施现状 |
| Key Words | Infrastructure investment; Infrastructure stock; Status quo of infrastructure |
| 内容提要 | 本文对金戈（2012）基础设施测算中出现的问题做出了修正，包括调整统计口径使得2003年前后数据可比，重新估算折旧率以及基年的基础设施存量。与本文的测算相比，金戈（2012）的测算在全国层面以及省际层面均存在着明显的误差。从测算得到的数据中可以看到，1978-2012年基础设施投资对GDP增长的贡献率为8%。90年代以后，基础设施存量的增长速度显著快于GDP的增长速度；并且基础设施存量在资本存量中的占比逐年上升，2002年达到最高点后开始下降。西部地区的基础设施投资增速、基础设施在总资本中的占比以及基础设施产出比都显著高于东部和中部。中部地区人均基础设施存量显著小于东部和西部。未来应该加大对于东部和中部地区基础设施投资的力度。 |
| Abstract | We revise Jin (2012)’s estimation of infrastructure capital stock. The revision includes rectifying the statistic caliber of infrastructure investment so that data before and after 2003 are comparable, and new estimation of depreciation rate and infrastructure capital stock of base year. Comparing to our estimation, there are significant errors in both country level and provincial level with Jin (2012)’s estimation. Based on the new estimation of infrastructure stock, we finds that the contribution of infrastructure to GDP growth is 8% from 1978 to 2012. Ever since 1990s, the growth rate of infrastructure stock is much higher than growth rate of GDP. And the proportion of infrastructure stock in capital stock rose before 2002 but declined after 2002. Growth rate of infrastructure investment, proportion of infrastructure stock in capital stock, and infrastructure product ratio in Western China are higher than those in Central and Eastern China. Infrastructure stock per capita in Central China is higher than that in Eastern and Western China. We should invest more in the infrastructure of Eastern and Central China. |
| 文章编号 | WP1021 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-01-26 |
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